By KO Political Editor
Srinagar: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Srinagar, his first since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, has generated some buzz, not just in the Kashmir valley but across the country. That the visit comes in the run-up to general elections which the BJP seems poised to win has also contributed to the hype. And it is likely that the PM’s address at Bakhshi Stadium in the heart of Srinagar to an expected massive gathering of people would put more media focus on Kashmir.
Beyond the buzz, hype and the political goal of the visit, the PM’s speech in Srinagar towards the fag end of his second term caps one of his government’s most unprecedented steps – the repeal of the constitutional provision that granted J&K its special status within Indian Union. And as the PM lands in Srinagar on Thursday morning, he would have every reason to be satisfied with the outcome of the move that was billed as deeply fraught when it was carried out on August 5, 2019.
Kashmir has come a long way since the revocation of the Article 370. Security-wise also, the situation has transformed to a large extent. This has happened incrementally over the period with violence declining sharply, reaching its lowest last year.
In reply to a query in J&K in early February, Union Minister of State in the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Nityananad Rai said in parliament that the security situation has shown a significant improvement since 2019. He said that in 2019, “the number of terrorist initiated incidents were 153 that came down to 126 in 2020, 129 in 2021 and 125 in 2022.”
“In 2023, only 46 such incidents were reported,” the reply read.
According to the minister’s data, 80 security personnel lost their lives in 2019, 63 in 2020, 42 in 2021, 32 in 2022 while only 30 were killed in 2023. Similarly 157 militants were killed in 2019, 221 in 2020, 180 in 2021, 187 in 2022 and 73 in 2023.
This shows more or less a steep downward trend, more so since last year.
The New Year’s Eve celebrations at Lal Chowk in Srinagar further symbolized the evolving dynamics of the region following the abrogation of Article 370. Things seem likely to improve further this year.
One biggest indicator of the new normalcy, as recurrently highlighted by the home minister Amit Shah, has been the growth of tourism, And last year is said to have broken all previous records with tourists arrival said to have crossed over one crore, the highest so far, beating by far even the pre-turmoil period record. This has generated employment for the thousands of people who had lost their jobs during Covid pandemic. Going forward, the situation looks set to only improve further, hopefully with all other political and social drivers of the place remaining unchanged.
Besides, with a significant increase in foreign tourist arrivals, travel agents anticipate further global promotion of Kashmir’s tourism. The prospects of foreign tourists from Thailand, Europe, and the Gulf visiting in large numbers have raised hopes for a robust winter tourism season in the coming months.
It remains to be seen what the PM would say in his keenly awaited speech. From all indications, the speech would largely be development-focussed. The PM’s announcements are anticipated to include a Rs 5,000-crore “Holistic Agriculture Development Programme” and 52 tourism-related projects worth Rs 140 crore.
Though the address will have a distinct political dimension, much of that will be of relevance to the ongoing national political scene than Kashmir. However, according to some social media posts, the PM is likely to promise restoration of statehood to J&K following parliamentary elections which his party is favourite to win. Or at least a promise of Assembly elections.
The visit comes amid calls from political parties in the Valley for simultaneous Assembly elections with the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, as J&K has been without an elected government since 2018. And should this “Modi ki guarantee” be promised, it will certainly create a lot of goodwill for him in both Kashmir and Jammu.
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