Two successive attacks on the Indian embassy in Kabul has shifted the media spotlight back to the destabilizing situation in Afghanistan. On Tuesday, a rocket propelled grenade exploded inside the Indian Ambassador Manpreet Vohra’s residential compound. A week earlier a bomb blast in Kabul diplomatic district caused a carnage. The death toll in the attack has now jumped from 90 to at least 150.In recent years, the attacks in Afghanistan make for a massive geo-political fallout. More so, those on Indian embassy or Indian interests. Both the government in Kabul and India invariably trace these attacks to Haqqani network in Pakistan aided by ISI. And Islamabad has always denied role. But this hasnt convinced either Kabul or New Delhi leading to a deterioration in the ties with both. More importantly with Kabul which has increasingly drawn close to India. Growing Kabul-New Delhi bonhomie has been a cause of deep concern for Pakistan which suspects India of using Afghan soil to promote trouble in Balochistan.
America and China are two other big players in this unfolding new great game. There is a growing congruence in the China and Pakistan in their approach to the regional problems. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor has aligned the interests of the two countries. And this alliance is something that has made New Delhi uncomfortable. India has opposed the CPEC on the ground that it passes through the Pakistan Administered Kashmir which India says belongs to it by virtue of the accession treaty signed by Maharaja Hari Singh.
On the other hand, Washington’s priorities with India are no longer regional in their nature but their scope is the larger geo-politics. In recent years, the US-India engagement has also been about the remaking of the global power equation with India not only being recognized as a global power in its own right but also as a countervailing force to China, the world’s No 2 in waiting. It goes without saying that India’s 1.3 billion population with a value addition of a burgeoning middle class has become an ultimate attraction for the recession-hit and depression threatened west. Besides, India’s calling cards of democracy, secularism and an inclusive political culture have turned the country into an oasis of sorts in a region of dysfunctional countries, autocracies and Chinese communism.
Russia is the new entrant to this game. Having substantially recovered from a drastic power meltdown following the collapse of USSR in 1989, Russia has again thrown its hat in the ring. And it isnt bound by its old equations and associations with the countries of the region, including India. Russia is now getting closer to Beijing and even Islamabad, a prospect that hasnt been to the liking of New Delhi.
Afghanistan is at the heart of this changing geo-political map of the region. In fact, it continues to be the battleground. And the attacks like the ones on Indian embassy are a pointer to this reality. The only way that this destabilizing situation can be effectively tackled is for the regional powers including India and Pakistan to get together and find a comprehensive solution. But it has to be a solution that also addresses the core concerns of the neighbouring countries and takes care of their interests.
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