BEIRUT (Reuters) – With Iran moving closer to a deal with world powers on its nuclear program in return for an end to more than three decades old sanctions, Arab analysts and leaders are focused more on how Tehran is working unconstrained to tighten its grip on states, from Iraq to Lebanon, and Syria to Yemen.
The man behind what some see as an attempt to create a new Persian “empire” on Arab land is Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the al-Quds brigade of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Since he emerged from the shadows last autumn, Soleimani seems to be omnipresent on the battlefields of the Middle East.
Photos of Soleimani, 60, almost an invisible man until the extremist jihadis of Islamic State (ISIS) overran cities in northern and central Iraq last year, are now everywhere.
He is seen directing operations in the battle to recapture from ISIS the city of Tikrit, birthplace of Saddam Hussein. He is snapped in Syria offering condolences on the killing of a relative of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president he has helped cling to power during four years of war despite Western backing for the rebels.
In Beirut he is photographed praying at the grave of Jihad Mughniyeh, son of the late commander of Hezbollah. Jihad was killed by an Israeli raid in Syria in January.
Gen Qassem Solaimani
Meanwhile, Ansarullah, the Shia Houthi movement in Yemen has seized power in the capital, Sanaa, to Iranian acclaim and the alarm of pro-West Arab states such as neighboring Saudi Arabia, Irans regional rival.
Such is Soleimanis personal sway that a Syrian opposition website has put up a spoof election poster saying: Vote for Qassem Soleimani, President of Syria.”
GAME CHANGER?
Iran may be serious about a nuclear deal that ends its pariah status and the crippling sanctions. But it has been maximizing its strength across the Middle East and, because Iranian forces and allied militias are spearheading the fight against the extremists in Iraq and Syria, Arab leaders believe the United States will do nothing to stop this.
This month, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assured Saudi leaders there would be no grand bargain with Tehran attached to any deal. Yet in a news conference at which Kerry acknowledged that Soleimani was involved in Tikrit, his host, Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal, almost exploded.
The situation in Tikrit is a prime example of what were worried about, said Prince Saud. Iran is taking over Iraq.
That is why, regional analysts say, it is not so much the prospective nuclear deal that is panicking the Gulf and its Sunni allies such as Egypt, but what a U.S.-Iran rapprochement may bring.
Sultan al-Qassemi, a commentator in the United Arab Emirates, says: The Iranian deal is a game-changer for the region and I think it is going to encourage Iran to pursue an even more assertive foreign policy.
This deal is the grand bargain Kerry is denying it is. It is giving Iran carte blanche in exchange for empty promises. Iran is on the ascendant. Iran has the winning hand in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.”
Riad Kahwaji, head of the Dubai-based INEGMA think tank says: The events in Iraq, Syria and Yemen indicate that Iran is on a massive offensive to gain strategic depth that has extended its areas of control all the way to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.
His allies in Iran, meanwhile, such as Tehran MP Ali Reza Zakani like Soleimani, close to supreme leader Ayatollah Syed Ali Khamenei boast they have three Arab capitals in the bag, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, with Sanaa soon to follow.
According to Irans Rasa new agency, MP said that had Hajj Qassem Soleimani not intervened in Iraq, Baghdad would have fallen, and the same applies to Syria; without the will of Iran, Syria would have fallen.
Describing events in Yemen as a natural extension of the Iranian revolution, he predicted 14 of Yemen’s 20 provinces would soon be under Ansarullah control.
The Yemeni revolution will not be confined to Yemen alone he said. It would extend into Saudi territories a reference not only to the kingdoms long, porous border with Yemen but the Shia dominated Eastern Province where Saudi Arabias richest oil deposits lie.
FOUR CAPITALS IN THE BAG?
John Jenkins, until last year British ambassador to Saudi Arabia and now with the International Institute of Strategic Studies, suggests US inattention to the regions concerns is worrying.
Already we see Iranian officials saying that they control four Arab capitals, and we have seen Houthi delegations travel to Tehran and Baghdad. This plays into the Gulf Arab narrative that they are being sold down the river, Jenkins says.
The U.S. presence in the region is as strong as its ever been, but the Gulf Arabs’ questions are about the Western will to act. They’ve seen examples in Lebanon and Syria of US inaction. And Yemen is the tip of the spear as far as the Saudis are concerned. Behind Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen stands Iran.”
While the Obama administration seeks to reassure Arab allies that it remains committed to them, analysts say Washington’s priority is to stop Iran developing an atomic bomb.
“Obama believes that reaching a nuclear deal with Iran could be his foreign policy legacy. The Americans are not looking at the deal with Iran in terms of its regional impact,” says Fawaz Gerges, Middle East expert at the London School of Economics.
(Additional reporting by William Maclean,; Babak Dehghanpisheh and Sam Wilkin; Editing by Giles Elgood)