Hazard, natural or artificial, is a process that encompasses event(s), which produce danger to life and structures; risk is related to hazard because it measures the intensity of destruction that a hazard may cause, and disaster is the destruction caused by any hazard. Jammu and Kashmir is largely vulnerable to three major hazards, earthquakes, floods, and landslides (apart from other disasters caused by avalanches etc.). And interestingly all these are related to each other. However, this does not mean that all floods and landslides are related to earthquakes and that they do not occur in isolation, they do. But, largely, these are related and therefore, one has to understand all of them in their entirety to come up with a credible solution for the safety and security of life and structures.
One important lesson that we could learn from the Muzaffarabad (Pakistan) earthquake that occurred in 2005 and caused an enormous destruction is the power of vulnerability in poor and politically unstable nations. It is reported that around 75,000 people lost their lives. It reminds us of the grim reality that even with modern understanding of hazards we were unable to save people, and most of the lives were lost by the unplanned structures. The earthquake that caused this destruction was a moderate sized event, unlike a huge quake that shook Japan in 2011 and caused very little structural damage. The Japan earthquake was truly an engineering marvel, where a huge magnitude earthquake was unable to topple the buildings, and most of these could withstand the enormous shaking without structural failure. However, still around 20,000 people died, and most of the deaths were caused by tsunami. In contrast, the Muzaffarabad earthquake was a complete failure, and this was mainly because of unplanned structures to withstand earthquake shaking. This happened in a nation, which is not only poor but politically unstable. Corruption is widespread, development is almost negligible. Similar ground situation was witnessed in another poor and unstable nation, Haiti, where an earthquake in 2010 caused a huge loss, around 316000 lost their lives.
The above examples clearly suggest that remedial, mitigation or a credible planning to counter any hazard is directly related to the overall political setup of a nation, poor and unstable nations are vulnerable to almost all kinds of disasters. This means that to counter hazards efficiently we have to develop a strong and reliable nation first. If we look onto the political setup of Jammu and Kashmir we will recognize a reasonable resemblance with Muzaffarabad, and Haiti, and thus we are likely to get similar scale destruction by earthquake, flood, landslide hazards or even any hazard.
Since the political construction of Jammu and Kashmir is woven in conflicts and it may take a while to reach to an agreement that is acceptable to the stakeholders. Therefore, it is required that somehow the development of the state should be prioritized as it is important for the welfare and security of the state. A state exists for the welfare of its inhabitants, and their future will entirely depend on the social, religious, political, and scientific outlook that they are exposed to. And this entirely depends on the overall developments within a state. Thus a well educated, enlightened, socially responsible and scientifically aware society will largely act rationally, and will take decisions suitable for growth and development of the state. And only such societies can win big battles and can fight any hazard.
The recent flood destruction, and now the health hazard, swine flu is a reminder that there is an urgent need from all of us to rethink on a bigger scale to change the moral, political and social dimensions of development in Jammu and Kashmir for a secure, prosperous and a peaceful future. Such an initiative can be taken by people at all levels and of all shades. We ought to act now.
Author is Senior Lecturer | Department of Applied Geology, School of Engineering and Science Curtin University, Sarawak Malaysia. He can be reached at: [email protected]