Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made his first big foreign policy mistake by calling off foreign secretary-level talks with Pakistan last week just as the latters envoy was meeting Kashmiri separatists. Modi impressed many with his astute outreach to smaller neighbours but this decision is arguably ill-advised as it can eventually create uncomfortable outcomes for India.
The prime minister is believed to have taken the decision to call off talks, but his motivations arent yet clear. Is this just a temporary hardline posture with an eye to the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, where the BJP hopes to form the government for the first time? Did Modi conclude that his counterpart Nawaz Sharif was politically too weak now to deliver on trade, and thereby decided to slow down the process till the Afghan endgame is clearer? Was this merely a reprisal for ceasefire violations, to signal Indias low threshold for tolerating cross-border violence or is there a view in New Delhi that putting Islamabad on notice helps forestalling future terrorist attacks?
We dont know the answers yet but last weeks developments have far-reaching consequences. First, it is a real setback for the Sharif-Modi relationship as the former will be under greater pressure from religious groups and the army to take a harder line. Modi has to live with the fact that he has alienated the one power player in the Pakistani establishment who was seriously keen on pushing ties forward. Indian misgivings on the separatists meeting or other issues could have been privately relayed without a public spectacle, as analysts have pointed out. New Delhi could have kept channels open with Sharif by citing the ceasefire violations as the reason for calling off talks to enable resumption of negotiations after a period of calm.
But by making India-Pakistan talks conditional on Islamabad having no contact with Kashmiri separatists, New Delhi will also be refreshing Kashmir as a cause in Pakistans internal politics which has been in recession for a few years now. The Pakistani leadership pays lip service to Kashmiri separatists but has been ignoring them lately in the larger scheme of things. Militant leaders based in Pakistan complain that Islamabad neglects them while meetings of separatists with Pakistani dignitaries were little more than photo-ops. The new Indian move can revive offensive militant rhetoric and mar atmospherics in the coming months.
Kashmiris are also quite aggrieved and are beginning to wonder as Islamabad will too if this is part of an attempt to ultimately take Kashmir off the India-Pakistan bilateral agenda. Last week, that looked like the logical next step after the meeting with separatists became the bone of contention. If meeting separatists is seen as unacceptable interference as it violates New Delhis position that Jammu & Kashmir is an integral part of India then discussing Kashmir bilaterally also does not make sense…..Sushil Aaron in The Hindustan Times
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