Israels deepening involvement in the conflict reveals the dynamics of the political struggle in Syria
The Israeli launch of air strikes presents a marked and dangerous escalation of its involvement in the Syrian war. Israels intervention also shows how the conflict has mutated from a political uprising to an internal armed struggle and now to a regional war by proxy, fiercely fought in Syria. The Syrian struggle has not only spread into its neighbours, such as Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and Turkey but has also become a battlefield wherein Israel and Iran are challenging each other. There is a real danger that this complex conflict can escalate into a battle involving Syrias major allies Iran and Hezbollah Israel, other regional powers and the western states.
Israels deepening involvement in the conflict also reveals the dynamics of the political struggle in Syria in two ways. Firstly, it puts the armed opposition on the defensive, because it shows them that they and Israel are indirectly battling the same enemy President Bashar Al Assads regime. Secondly, it reinforces Al Assads dominant narrative: That the struggle in Syria is not internal, that this is not about a domestic coalition striving to replace authoritarianism with democracy but rather this is a wider conspiracy spearheaded by Israel and its allies. Although the Iranian leadership has repeatedly stated that it will come to the aid of Syria if it is attacked by Israel, it is unlikely that Iran or Hezbollah will retaliate directly against Israels strikes. Both will like to avoid a regional conflict in which Israel and its allies will have the upper hand. What Iran and Hezbollah will most likely do is deepen their involvement in Syrias killing fields.
In an emotional speech last week, Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, stressed that Al Assads allies will not allow Syria to fall. Now Hezbollah and Iran will become all the more determined to prevent the removal of Al Assad from power. Bluntly put, the recent escalation of hostilities will not only prolong the deadly conflict in Syria, but will now make it an open-ended war by proxy one with major potential repercussions for regional and international security and peace.
Israels major goal appears to be the establishment of a red line in Syria, whereby no advanced weapons reach Hezbollah its arch enemy in Lebanon. Israels primary audience were Hezbollah and Iran. Given the risks and the dangers of a region-wide conflict, one hopes that the great powers particularly the US and Russia will assume their historic responsibility and reach an understanding that will begin the process of putting an end to the deadly struggle in Syria.
The conflict has already killed almost 80,000 and caused a humanitarian disaster. More than two years after the breakout of the confrontation, there does not seem to be a military solution. Neither internal camp seems to have the means to deliver a decisive blow.
Only a political solution will put an end to the shedding of Syrian blood and prevent the unthinkable: A regional conflict that will have catastrophic consequences.
The Telegraph Group Limited, London, 2013
Fawaz Gerges is a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, where he directs the Middle East Centre.
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