Slowly but surely, ISILs control over territory in Iraq and Syria is coming to an end. But what does that mean for the future of radical extremists in the region and for Middle East social cohesion more generally?
There are a few things that ought to be said from the outset. The first is that caution over suggestions that ISIL will suddenly disappear should not detract from the success of the Iraqi forces in defeating the group in different parts of the country. Far too many, it seems, were utterly dismissive about the possibility that Iraqi forces might be able to dislodge ISIL. In reality, they were quite successful. Yes, there are legitimate questions to be asked about the anti-Sunni sectarianism of certain Shia militias in Iraq, but that should not detract from the campaign successes.
The second thing that must be admitted is that the end of ISILs control over certain parts of territory in Iraq and Syria does not mean the end of its rule entirely. They will exist for some time; but certainly, there is good cause for optimism about the end of its territorial expansion and, indeed, ISILs contraction.
Thirdly, the end of territorial control does not spell the end of ISIL as a movement. It means the transformation of the group, a morphing of it, rather than its disappearance. That morphing might result in more than one offshoot. The nature of such radical movements in the past has always included a tendency towards splintering. How those divisions might play out is uncertain, but it is certainly something to watch.
Tajamul Rehman Bhat
Follow this link to join our WhatsApp group: Join Now
Be Part of Quality Journalism |
Quality journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce and despite all the hardships we still do it. Our reporters and editors are working overtime in Kashmir and beyond to cover what you care about, break big stories, and expose injustices that can change lives. Today more people are reading Kashmir Observer than ever, but only a handful are paying while advertising revenues are falling fast. |
ACT NOW |
MONTHLY | Rs 100 | |
YEARLY | Rs 1000 | |
LIFETIME | Rs 10000 | |