The staple of conversations in Kashmir nowadays is the nature and denouement of the protests that engulfed Kashmir after Burhan Wani's murder. I, being albeit a passive observer of the whole saga, am neither immune nor indifferent to this general trend. On the crisp Tuesday morning of Ist of November, I went to see an ailing but politically and astute friend of mine. Inevitably, after the initial pleasantries were over, over chai and Kashmiri roti, our conversation meandered onto to "haalaat" (conditions) in Kashmir. My friend, a distant look in his eyes said , "a sense of failure or defeat is taken differently by different age and social groups". Those past their 40s adjust but the younger ones nurse this sense of losing. This nursing of a grudge, grievance or hurt, then mutates and manifests itself in different avatars.. As my friend came out of what was almost a reverie, and made eye contact with me, he added, "I am referring to Kashmir and our youth. I don't think they will take the panning out of the protests in their stride. There will be a backlash..
My astute and politically savvy friend has a point. And it relates or pertains to the nature of the protests that descended upon Kashmir after Wani's killing and the long term consequences of the panning out of the protests. The working assumption of the state and powers that be appears to have long been containment and management of the conflict in Kashmir. The fallout has sought to be managed diplomatically in terms of the conflict over Kashmir. The overall consequences have been continuation of India's sovereign writ and remit over Kashmir.- albeit at a price that might have been hitherto viewed as tolerable or manageable by the state. The vale of Kashmir, the centre of gravity of the state of Jammu and Kashmir- has borne the brunt of conflict management and containment. If the past decade or so is taken as a baseline for protests and violence then after every few years, Kashmir descends into chaos, violence and protests. Protests 2016 then are a third in a very discernable pattern. Protests 2008 and 2010 died on account of attrition and dissipation of people's energies. The same fate might, at some point in time, befall protests 2016. Should the state, given this denouement and panning out of the protests gloat? Should it see the end as a victory of the tactics of containment and management?
No is the clear cut answer.
I will here revert to my friend's observations and remarks.
A sense of hurt will be nursed by Kashmir¡'s Gen Next and it will, in all likelihood, prompt them to look at the character, nature and pattern of, broadly speaking , the conflict in and over Kashmir and the sporadic but deep and wide protest movements that took place sequentially in Kashmir. The conclusions that they might draw is that containment and thereby obstructionism of the resolution of the conflict in and over Kashmir has led to an impasse. And that this impasse or stalemate of sorts needs to be broken- even if it warrants extreme measures or approaches. A digression may be taken here. The older cohort of Kashmiris who either took to the gun or supported the insurgency, passively, inertly or by omission and commission may have been open to dialogue over the conflict even though in what has been called "maximalist terms". That is, freedom or related end goals. The new cohort or Gen Next of Kashmiris, given their sense of hurt and what they see as betrayal, might not even countenance "maximalism" They might reject everything and view rejectionism as an end in itself. In their scheme of things, it may be that reconciliation, dialogue or talks have all failed in the past and yielded nothing. So why bother? They might reject the West, international intervention in Kashmir or what have you with "moderation" viewed as a weakness by this generation.
If a parallel might be drawn here, it would be with the nature, formation and trajectory of Palestine's Hamas.
Frustrated goals, a legacy of the conflict and past history re powers that be might force the Gen Next of Kashmir to take the Hamas route. Whether this is wrong or right is not the question, but it is in the nature of a commentary on the state's approach and technique of containment and conflict management vis a vis Kashmir. The review by Kashmir's Gen Next will transform and mutate the conflict into a zero sum dynamic between the main protagonists. It will be in the nature of an Us versus them that will brook no dialogue or parleys. Kashmir will then not be back to square one but the fallout will be more intense and the vale will be "back to the future" so to speak. These putative and potential developments should concentrate the minds of powers that be. They must take a sober view of the conflict in and over Kashmir and institute a paradigm of conflict resolution that redounds to the benefit of all stakeholders- especially Kashmiris.
World politics, economics, political economy and the shape and form of power and its configuration are all in flux. So is Kashmir, South Asia and regions beyond. Prudence and far sighted state craft warrants not a reactive approach to this flux and churn but a pro-active one. This has a searing and special resonance for and in Kashmir. Let powers that be and all stakeholders to the conflict in and over Kashmir take a sober and abstemious view. Containment and conflict management have, in the context of Kashmir, failed. What is needed is a fresh start- the kind that is bold, beautiful and smells of roses. Let the process begin now. Tomorrow may be too late.
World politics, economics, political economy and the shape and form of power and its configuration are all in flux. So is Kashmir, South Asia and regions beyond. Prudence and far sighted state craft warrants not a reactive approach to this flux and churn but a pro-active one. This has a searing and special resonance for and in Kashmir. Let powers that be and all stakeholders to the conflict in and over Kashmir take a sober and abstemious view. Containment and conflict management have, in the context of Kashmir
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