Lord Palmerston- the famous 19th century British statesman and Prime Minister- famously stated that, “nations have no permanent friends; they only have permanent interests”. This dictum, almost an axiomatic truth in interstate relations and state craft, has a searing resonance in the growing relations between Pakistan and Russia encapsulated by the joint military exercises that the two countries are holding in Pakistan. It be recalled (with poignancy and alacrity) that the former USSR or Soviet Union from which Russia emerged after its split or break up was a “sworn enemy of Pakistan and vice versa during the Cold War. Pakistan was instrumentalized by the United States in its campaign against Soviet Union, initially as part of a containment strategy and then as a “rollback” push.
This entailed using Pakistani territory, assets (intelligence and military), and reorientation of Pakistan’s foreign policy towards fighting proxy war in Afghanistan. It needs to be stated here that Pakistan was not an “innocent” partner in the Cold War dynamic and crusade against the Soviet Un ion. The country saw benefits in partnering with the United States to defeat the Soviet Union. It was primarily the geo-strategic location of Pakistan and its character as a Muslim nation that made the country almost a “natural partner” against the former Soviet Union.
Mujahideen were employed as a proxy to fight the Soviet Forces in Afghanistan under the famed “Brzezinski plan or doctrine. Obiter dictum, once the Cold war was over, the United States lost interest in Pakistan as well as Afghanistan; interregnum was filled by the rise of the Taliban which later hosted Al- Qaeda – the bulk of which comprised what came to be known as “Arab- Afghans”. Arab- Afghans formed the core matrix and c entre of gravity of Al Qaeda.
Returning to the main theme of the analysis, the proxy far fought in Afghanistan under the broad rubric of containment and then rollback wherein Pakistan was a key and critical partner of the United States not only estranged Soviets from Pakistan but also led to bitter animosity- so much so that even a patina of improved relations between Russians and Pakistani’s seemed impossible. But now, after the collapse of the Soviet Union from which Russia incubated and the country considers itself to be the legatee of the Soviet Empire and after profound structural changes in world politics and international relations, Russians and Pakistani’s are holding joint military exercises.
Even if the nature of the exercise is not substantive in terms of numbers involved but the symbolism is immense.
What, the question, is explains the “new friendship” between former enemies?
The answer appears to lie in the structure of the international system. This system is gradually or may, in fact, be actually multipolar as we write. In a multipolar system as opposed to unipolar or bipolar ones, multiple states jostle and jockey for power, advantage and position in the international system. It may also be stated that historically multipolar systems are unstable- that is, prone to war.
The key players in the emergent or extant multipolar system are the United States, China, Russia and India. Other key states like Iran, Saudi Arabia and Brazil may said to be regional hegemons whose alignment politically might lie in “bandwagonning” or “ balancing”. Now, in terms of Russia, the country appears to be attempting to recalibrate its power and hence position in international politics to reassert itself. This explains the country’s activism and intervention in the Middle East- especially Syria. It is Russian reassertion allows us to place its new relationship with its former enemy, Pakistan, into perspective. But the question is what is in it for Pakistan?
A key or significant part of a nation’s foreign, defence and security policy is diversification. That is, non reliance on a single ally or partner. This is what Pakistan appears to be doing by developing a partnership of relationship with Russia. Pakistan has historically relied on the United States for its defence and security policy needs.
This relationship – historically and contemporarily- has not been a picture perfect one- to say the least. Pakistan, by building a relationship with Russia appears to be killing two birds with one stone: signalling to the United States that it is not the only game in town, so to speak and diversifying Pakistan’s options and policy space in the process.
Broadly speaking, world order is perhaps in the throes of disorder as new themes and players enter the scene and jostle, jockey and manoeuvre for power, prestige, interest and security.
What form and shape , the new world order will take is not known at this point in time but whatever shape it will take , will have a significant impact on international politics, regional and global security and world order or disorder. Pakistan’s budding relationship is part of this putative new drift in world politics. How this along with other key developments and trends will be worth watching. All in all, we live in interesting times.
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