Mehbooba’s Dilemma: To be or not to be

The state of Jammu and Kashmir has been put under Governor’s rule on the 9th of January, 2016. This is perhaps the seventh time that the blighted state has been put under Governor’s rule.

This time, it happened not because of scheming or other extra state manipulations but because of the sudden death of Mufti Sayyed who died as Chief Minister of the state. Given this unprecedented situation and the fact that nobody occupied the Chief Minister’s office, the state kind of lapsed into Governor’s rule. Ostensibly then the state is under Governor’s rule because Mehbooba Mufti refused to or was unable to take oath as Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir. This is insofar what meets the eye. The real reasons may be more profound. We will not go into these but pertinent to mention here is that Ghulam Nabi Azad, a staunch Congressman and Sonia Gandhi visited Mehbooba and offered condolences over her father’s demise. The visits by Sonia and Azad cannot be mere coincidence. There could be political reasons for these. Lest it be omitted, Nitin Gadkari of the BJP also visited Mehbooba and the BJP formally announced that the dreams of Mufti Sayyed would be fulfilled.

Post Mufti’s death, it can be stated with certainty that in terms of coalition politics, the PDP is in the driver’s seat. It is being wooed by political players and partners of different complexions and hues. This allows the PDP to be in a position to drive some hard bargains. The options available to the PDP are dissolution of the current government and form a government with the Congress party with some support from independents. The other option, of the least resistance is to bargain hard with the BJP and carry on with the current dispensation; the last, which could be the boldest and most daring one would be to dissolve the government and go for re-elections.

Let us examine each option on its merits.

If the PDP carries on with the BJP, it could drive a hard bargain with the BJP and push for the implementation of the Agenda for the Alliance. This would allow the party to cannibalize the coalition for its own ends but would not, remove the tag of having brought the BJP plus RSS to Kashmir. Would an alliance with the Congress do the trick? The Congress is desperate to revive its flagging fortunes. It would not be a stretch to assert that the party would not be loath to offer unconditional, open ended support to the PDP. The upshot for the PDP would be that it would call the shots in the coalition , the nature of the compromises would be small and the party can earn kudos for having come out of the coalition with the BJP. The last option-dissolution of the government and calling for fresh elections- would be the boldest and the most risky. Mehbooba could refuse to form the government and seek a fresh mandate from the people. This would have many benefits: first, it would elevate her stature, the stigma of having allied with the BJP/RSS would wash off and she would be able to able to assert and consolidate her position with the party. The party’s ‘internal dissenters’ would have no issue to rake and have no reason not to fall in line and her leadership position within the party would be established. The flip side of this alternative would be undoing and questioning her father’s legacy.

So which of these options would Mehbooba take?

We cannot answer on Mehbooba’s behalf. She will obviously take a considered position and stance on the issue with due advice from powers that be within her party and what have you. But what we will push for and root is the option that is best for the state of Jammu and Kashmir and its people. In any case, the  political uncertainty that befell the state after Mufti’s death will be cleared soon. The outcome of this will cast either its shadow or leave an imprint on the politics and the people of the state for a long time.  We will wait, watch and hope for an outcome that best redounds to the welfare and good of the people of the state.

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