The abrupt collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is a monumental shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Assad had for nearly 14 years fended off a rebellion that broke out in the wake of the Arab Spring that toppled several governments in the region. But among all these countries, Syria holds the most geostrategic value. Assad was a close ally of Iran and Russia, and a supporter of Palestinian cause. It was through Syria that Iran armed Hamas and Hezbollah, enabling them to resist Israel. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” comprising Hezbollah, Hamas, and aligned factions in Iraq and Yemen, thus faces a stark reckoning. Assad’s ousting marks a severe blow to Tehran’s strategic foothold in Syria, a crucial corridor for supply of arms to its allied groups fighting Israel. So, the west and Israel always wanted a friendly government in the country.
The current turn of events has been brought about after the weakening of Hezbollah and Hamas which, in turn, has dealt some blow to Iran’s influence in the region. It was essentially Iran, Russia and Hezbollah which were propping up Assad’s regime. The recent successive assassinations of Hezbollah’s leadership by Israeli strikes, the weakening of Hamas and Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine left the field open in Syria for the west-led forces to take over. And they have done so in a lightning offensive lasting just a few weeks.
For decades, Palestinians have relied on the Iran-backed axis for material and political support. The new geopolitical shift suggests a grim outlook for Palestinian aspirations. The new rulers in Damascus are likely to distance themselves from Hezbollah’s legacy, signaling a recalibration of Syria’s foreign policy. This shift could isolate Tehran further, diminishing its ability to project power and sustain its allies.
In contrast, Israel has emerged stronger. It has reduced security threats from Hezbollah and Hamas and pushed back Iran. It also looks set to get a friendly government in Syria. Netanyahu has already boasted about his role in toppling the Assad regime, saying the “central link” in Iran’s axis had been broken. On Sunday, Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to “seize” a demilitarised buffer zone on the border with Syria, thus effectively exercising control over a part of Syrian territory.
No one should have issue with a genuine mass-based movement taking power in any country. But should we have a “proxy” government that is pro-Israel, pro-west and may potentially work against Palestinian cause – or at best maintain a distance from it? So, while some may celebrate the fall of Assad as some sort of a victory for the people of Syria, we need a more clear-eyed understanding of the unfolding developments. It may only end up further setting back the Palestinian cause and further undermining the agency of gulf states.
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