Srinagar- Kashmir is transitioning into winter, and the weather is already showing signs of a cold season ahead. Jammu & Kashmir is experiencing foggy mornings and there has been a gradual decline in both maximum and minimum temperatures, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting a La Niña event.
Dr Mukhtar, a senior scientist at IMD, stationed at Srinagar weather station confirmed the onset of the La Niña weather effect, predicting a colder and beyond normal precipitation for the Kashmir region this year.
He said the impact of La Niña was likely to be evident starting mid-December this year with an expectation of heavy precipitation and intensified cold spells.
La Niña is a natural climate phenomenon occurring in the Pacific Ocean. It is characterised by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This cooling disrupts the atmospheric circulation patterns, significantly influencing weather systems worldwide.
Typically, La Niña leads to wetter-than-usual conditions in Southeast Asia and parts of Australia, while causing colder winters and increased precipitation in regions such as South Asia, including Kashmir.
The IMD said that this year, La Niña is forming over the Pacific Ocean, with its effects being felt across the globe. “While the current conditions are neutral to weak La Niña, the phenomenon is expected to strengthen as the winter progresses. This intensification will likely amplify the impact of cold and precipitation across the Kashmir region and parts of northern India,” it said.
Speaking on the changing weather pattern, Dr Mukhtar said, “The La Niña effect shifts atmospheric dynamics in ways that bring abnormal precipitation and colder temperatures. This can translate to a harsher winter for Kashmir, with more frequent snowfalls and prolonged cold spells.”
He said that past instances of La Niña, particularly in 2018-19 and 2021-22, brought significant snowfall to the region. “The likelihood of heavy snow spells and rainfall is high this season, and this could result in a much colder winter compared to the last few years,” he added.
The Kashmir Valley, already accustomed to freezing winters, remains highly vulnerable to the effects of La Niña.
Dr Mukhtar said it is important to learn from previous winters, citing the deficit precipitation observed during strong El Niño years and the subsequent changes in weather patterns. “Unlike last year, which was dominated by El Niño, this year’s La Niña effect will likely bring a more traditional and harsh Kashmiri winter,” he said.
“There is a 71% chance that La Nina conditions will develop during Oct-Nov… The years when you have La Nina, temperatures in the northern part of the country, specially northwest India and adjoining central region, are below normal (colder than normal)… So, you can have cold wave conditions during winter months,” IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told an English daily.
However, reports also say that this year, La Niña is expected to be unusually weak. Times of India reported OP Sreejith, head of climate monitoring at IMD, saying that due to climate change, temperatures are already elevated, which has prevented the La Niña anomaly from sustaining itself. This mild intensity may result in a warmer-than-usual winter for India, especially in the northern regions.
Experts say most circulation patterns mirror La Nina conditions, characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, contrasting with El Nino’s warmer temperatures.La Niña can only be officially confirmed if the Oceanic Niño Index consistently drops to at least -0.5°C, a threshold that has not been met so far this year. (inputs from KNO)
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