This year Kashmir has recorded a 34% deficit in rainfall from June to July, and in October the Valley witnessed a 74% shortfall. Overall also, the Valley has received less precipitation beginning with last winter itself. We had a largely dry December-January which briefly affected the arrival of tourists to the Valley before picking up again in February when it snowed again. The last such dry winters were 2015 and 2018. Data reveals that in the past 28 years alone, nine winters have passed more or less snowless – three of them in the last decade – a frequency that has created a deep sense of alarm. While erratic or lack of snowfall is depleting glaciers and incidentally also affecting tourism, the shifts in weather patterns is also impacting Kashmir’s horticulture, including the apple crop, a mainstay of the region’s economy. In Kashmir itself, apple farming is one of the primary sources of employment, engaging nearly 3.5 million farmers, which constitutes 27 percent of the region’s population. The export of apples contributes over 8 percent to the region’s GDP.
In recent years, snowless winters have been followed by warm springs and hotter summers. If this weather trend lingers over the long term, it poses an existential risk to agriculture. Although, this winter, the Valley has witnessed snowfall in the upper reaches, the plains have experienced dry weather. However, this is unlikely to dent tourist inflow, considering the Valley offers cleaner alternative to large parts of mainland India, particularly the major cities. In Delhi, for example, the Air Quality Index level has been hovering between 400-500. Snow, however, remains the biggest draw for holiday makers from the other parts of the country, for whom it remains a novelty.
However, the challenge from climate change is multi-pronged: it threatens to severely affect the Valley’s sources of water, agriculture, and tourism. Between them, these are pillars of the Valley’s economy. It is thus important that we work out a strategy to deal with a deeply uncertain future.
Although climate change is a global phenomenon, Kashmir has become its microcosm. It is mirrored in the fragile ecosystem of the region. From erratic weather patterns to heatwaves, Kashmir has been experiencing the same changes as on the global level. The changes are not mere aberrations but harbingers of a dire future if immediate actions are not taken. While we can’t do much about climate change at the global level, we can certainly make some redeeming difference to the local aspects of this change. The newly elected government should make addressing the fallout of the climate change on the UT’’s environment a priority focus area.
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