Contrary to expectations, the newly elected NC-Congress coalition has started on a positive note: Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has reached out to the central government and sought to establish a working relationship, in an apparent bid to prioritize governance over politics. But how long will this honeymoon last is anybody’s guess. Omar’s first priority is the restoration of statehood and to this end, the cabinet led by him passed a resolution as its first order of business. The CM later handed it over to prime minister Narendra Modi during his visit to New Delhi, his first after assuming the office. The visit during which he also met home minister Amit Shah, defence minister Rajnath Singh and transport minister Nitin Gadkari, attracted more attention for his shawl gifts to the three. This showed Omar’s priority is to collaborate rather than to confront the centre to ensure he receives the necessary support to run the government.
But this is unlikely to be easy, and Omar seems to be mindful of this. The NC-Congress combine and the BJP-ruled central government drastically diverge in their ideology and governing philosophy for the union territory, making confrontation far more likely than cooperation.The dynamic places the coalition government at a disadvantage, given its lack of power in the existing arrangement.
The coalition’s challenge isn’t just dealing with the powerful Lieutenant Governor representing the BJP government at the centre, it will also be up against the BJP as a formidable regional opposition party with the second largest number of seats. The saffron party increased its tally in the Jammu division from the 25 seats in 2014 to 29 now, making it the majority party from the region. The coalition will thus invariably be accused by the BJP of denying Jammu a credible representation.
With the BJP government at the centre and its LG effectively running the union territory, it is likely to be tough for the elected government to hold its ground, let alone take steps to fulfill its promises. In a recent interview, the senior BJP leader and its J&K pointman Ram Madhav has already put the coalition on notice saying it doesn’t fully represent the entire union territory because the Jammu heartland is missing from it. Already such voices have reared their head in Jammu. Social media in the region is abuzz with the people expressing resentment at being left out of the government, even after consolidating in favour of the BJP. Going forward, the BJP is expected to further assert itself.
Will the centre restore statehood in the near future is an open question. It is, however, believed that New Delhi may take its own sweet time, during which it will closely monitor the behaviour of the Omar-led coalition. New Delhi wouldn’t take kindly to the adoption of an aggressive stance on Article 370, a reason that may explain the downplaying of the NC rhetoric on Article 370, contrary to what the party has set out in its manifesto. Although Omar has reportedly been assured of the restoration of the statehood, no timeline has been given and thus no action on the assurance is expected anytime soon.
There is another catch: Even if the statehood is granted somewhere down the line, it is expected to be more or less a truncated one just like that of Delhi. Centre, it is believed will be loathe to let go of control on the security agencies and the allied security related matters, lest it unravel the gains made in recent years.
Meanwhile, the first test of the NC-led coalition relationship with the centre will come when the coalition brings a resolution on Article 370 in the first session of the Legislative Assembly, as the NC MLA and party spokesperson, Tanvir Sadiq has made it clear. While the BJP will oppose it tooth and nail, arguing that Jammu’s heartland districts which gave the party 29 seats didn’t vote for it, it will be interesting to see how the NC’s main coalition partner, the Congress responds to it. The Congress can act neutral or oppose the resolution with an eye on the upcoming elections in Maharashtra where its position on Article 370 will have a bearing on the voters. Abrogation of Article 370 which granted J&K a special position under the constitution enjoys a near-unanimous public support in the rest of the country, making it difficult for a national party like the Congress to support its restoration.
That said, it will also be interesting to see how the smaller parties in the Valley will behave. Considering these parties gunned for the NC when it initially seemed to back out of the resolution on Article 370, they will have no option but to vote for it. The NC too will need their support for any chance of the resolution being passed in the Assembly. As the Assembly session approaches, alliances will thus be tested, and the stakes will rise for all parties involved.
Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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