PAKISTAN Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has sought the UAE’s help to get Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s to discuss the “burning” issue of Kashmir and resolve it in “a sincere and honest manner.” In an interview to Al Arabiya TV channel, Sharif evoked the specter of a nuclear conflagration should a war break out between the tywo countries. “We are nuclear powers, armed to the teeth and if God forbid a war breaks out who will live to tell what happened,” Sharif told the channel.
However, India is in no mood to engage Pakistan. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has made it amply clear that dialogue with Pakistan can only be held once it ends cross-border terrorism. So, there is little chance of dialogue taking place in the near to medium future. More so now when Pakistan is going through political and economic turmoil. The country’s problems have increased manifold after Tehreek-e-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP) ended the ceasefire with Pakistan Army in November last and has since launched a series of attacks. This has worsened the internal security situation with the TTP and Baluch insurgent groups mounting attacks on the state. The country’s economic situation is bleaker forcing the prime minister Sharif to reach out to Gulf nations for financial help.
There is another factor that will bar any early engagement between the two neighbours: the national elections in Pakistan this year and in India next year. In a sense, both the governments are in election mode. More so, Pakistan where general polls are being held in August. .
But it is also true that the union government did engage with the neighbouring country informally for months after the withdrawal of Article 370. The back-channel talks were reported to have begun in November 2020 and by February 2021, the two countries reinstated the otherwise defunct 2003 ceasefire along the Line of Control. The truce was marked by a brief spell of bonhomie. But the two countries failed to build on that as Islamabad sought reversal of the revocation of Article 370 for the talks to go ahead. And India wanted terrorism to end. The ongoing turmoil in Pakistan has further complicated the matters.
And with the two countries looking forward to their respective national elections, the chances of an engagement have further ebbed. Now, if at all, any meaningful talks can only happen after the new governments are formed in the two countries which would happen only after 2024.
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