Congress: A Death foretold

On a cold and foggy December day in December 2012, Delhi Police let loose its brute force on protestors at India Gate, who were demanding stricter policing and tougher laws in dealing with violence against women, following the infamous Delhi gang rape. Protesters, both men and women, young and elderly were mercilessly beaten by Delhi Police which had come out in full riot gear. Those ugly images were carried throughout India by 24/7 news networks and social media. The anger among common people was palpable and the situation was on the boil given the insensitive and indifferent attitude of the Govt.

The UPA Govt’s callous and indifferent attitude was epitomized by the then Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde , who, when asked in an interview, why no one from the Govt had gone to the India Gate to speak to the protesters said,  “No, the government can’t go everywhere where any group of people is protesting. If tomorrow 100 adivasis are killed in Gadchiroli or Chhattisgarh, should the government go there? No.”

If there was one incident which reinforced the UPA Govt’s complete disconnect with the people it was its handling of the aftermath of the Delhi gang rape. At no point during those tumultuous days did it seem that the UPA II was a democratically elected Govt which was accountable to the people. That Govt reminded people of the Raj. A few months before these protests, the Govt had also used force against the protests which were led by ‘’India Against Corruption’’, highlighting the rampant corruption in the Govt. These incidents left a strong sense of resentment against the Ruling Coalition and these images remained etched in public memory.

One year later, in Dec 2013, when the public got its first chance to show its dissatisfaction with the Govt, it did so with vengeance. In the Delhi Assembly elections, the ruling Congress party won just seven of the seventy seats, with the BJP getting 35 and the new kid on the block, Aam Aadmi Party, AAP surprising everyone by bagging 28 seats. The public had decided and clearly underlined its resentment and anger against the Ruling party. AAP went on to form the Govt in Delhi with outside support from the Congress party. This Govt lasted just 49 days.

If anything, the UPA II epitomized inefficiency, callousness, indifference, and insensitivity towards common man. It had completely lost touch with the ground reality and seemed to be out of sync with the aspirations of people. This Govt was voted back to power in 2009, with a bigger mandate than the one it had got in 2004. It was re-elected on the back of five years of high GDP and economic growth. The period starting 2003 saw the entire world flooded with cheap capital, on account of very low interest rates in the US. India, having opened up its economy in early 1990s found itself a beneficiary of this cheap capital by way of both portfolio and FDI inflows. It was a period when India began to assert itself on the global scene, by creating a brand for itself in IT/ ITES and related services. Indian call centres and BPOs became famous world over. The middle class began to slowly expand, which led to more urbanization. With higher disposable incomes and cheaper capital available, this segment of the Indian population became more consumerist. Shopping malls, multiplexes, theme parks etc began to come up in every city. The entire landscape of India, most notably its urban centres had undergone a major transformation.  The cheap capital and higher disposable incomes also helped inflate the real estate and stock prices in India. There was a sense of general well being all around.

This party lasted for about five years. In 2008, when UPA-I was still in office, the global economy came to a screeching halt. There was a global economic meltdown, with some of the major American financial institutions at the verge of collapse. The peak of this crisis was marked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, in Sept 2008. What followed was a severe crisis in almost all global markets as the easy liquidity began to dry up. The game of musical chairs had stopped and when this tide ebbed, it seemed everyone was floating naked. India, to its credit, managed to sail through this crisis given that the UPA Govt announced anew pay commission for its employees, in its last year in office. The Govt also announced tax sops for the industry to tide over the credit crunch and lack of demand it was facing.

The UPA-II came to power with a stronger mandate and higher expectations. But it seemed from day one, it was hell bent on discrediting its own mandate. From the joint declaration with Pakistan at Sharm al Sheikh to the subsequent scams and corruption allegation, nothing went right for UPA -II. It seemed it was raining scams during UPA-II. Be it the Common Wealth Games, 2G Scam, Adarsh or Coalgate, the Congress party was never seen seriously confronting these issues .Although Manmohan Singh’s own personal integrity was not questioned, but he was increasingly  seen as a powerless Prime Minister, with Sonia Gandhi wielding real power, but without any accountability.

As the effect of the easy liquidity prevalent during UPA-I began to wean off, so did the common people begin to feel the pinch. It was like an addict suddenly being taken off his drugs. The withdrawal symptoms were really painful. Job market began to contract, investments started coming off, inflation, especially food inflation was on the rise. Infact high inflation was a problem that UPA-II was never able to address. Instead of addressing supply side issues to tackle inflation, the Govt started using cosmetic measures like rate hikes to tackle inflation. This not only failed to curb inflation, but jeopardized industrial growth. GDP growth began to come off and it seemed all was doom and gloom. What added to the misery of people was the sheer indifference with which the Govt was seen to tackle these issues. Various ministers and even the Prime Minster started giving weird explanation for the sticky inflation. All along, the Congress party and UPA-II Govt were in denial mode.

As the elections came closer, the Govt again fell back on its old theatrics of throwing crumbs at people. Food Security Bill was introduced towards the fag end of UPA-II. The thinking in the Congress Party was if nothing else, this could bring them votes in rural and small town India which would enable them to be re-elected. But what UPA-II and Congress failed to grasp was not only the anger and frustrations of people but that most Indians, including rural and poor Indians had moved beyond doles. They were no longer interested in living a miserable life. The party and the Govt failed to gauge the rising aspirations of Indians: the aspiration of a good life. Travel through India and this theme of aspiration comes across quite visibly, irrespective of the social and economic status of people. Congress also miserably failed to see the youth bulge in India.

Though Congress party and UPA-II often made a case about pursuing policies of social inclusiveness like MNREGA and Food Security Bill, it clearly seemed  to be targeted at gaining an electoral victory than achieving anything substantial for the poorer sections of the society. With the Govt having almost completely abdicated its responsibility in providing quality and affordable Education and healthcare, these social security measures seemed too cosmetic and didn’t bring the desired electoral results for the Congress party.

Congress Party should have seen this disaster coming. With the party being completely routed in the politically important states of UP and Bihar in the Assembly elections a few years earlier and then in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi in December 2013, the party failed to introspect. No one in the party asked questions of the leadership, especially the party’s mascot Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi. Congress party is known to always indulge in sycophancy and shield the Gandhi family from taking any blame.

Having ceded so much space to the opposition especially the BJP, which under Narendra Modi, filled in this void and became an unstoppable force. The Congress party was unable to stop the juggernaut of Narendra Modi, who not only tapped into the rising middle class anger, but also decimated Congress in its bastion of rural and small town India. Congress party seemed to be in a time warp, with its failure to use modern media especially social media effectively. That added to its failure to connect with the people.

The Congress party has been handed a monumental defeat. In two states, Gujarat and Rajasthan, BJP has made a clean sweep and In UP, Congress has managed to win just two out of the eighty seats. For the Congress party, it is not only a challenge to rebuild the party, but also to revitalize a demoralized cadre and make serious leadership changes. Congress party will need to revaluate Rahul Gandhi’s role and make serious changes in the top leadership. But that is unlikely. What is likely is that Congress will stick to the status quo, and affect some cosmetic changes.

With the state that Congress party is in, it is difficult to imagine it bouncing back soon. For Congress party, this was a death foretold. Given how inefficient Rahul Gandhi has been as a political leader and a mobilizer, it seems the Gandhi Family will soon be relegated to the footnotes of  Indian politics.

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