As the first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is due to come to an end, the chances of the peace holding in Gaza are growing increasingly slim. The reason is that Israel doesn’t seem to be intent on ending the war and keeps threatening to resume war every now and then. Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu’s sole motivation to halt the war seems to be the release of Israeli hostages by Hamas. And once all hostages are released, the situation could go back to square one, with nothing to hold back Israel. Should that happen, it would be a catastrophe. Fifteen month relentless invasion has already flattened the place and killed around 61,000 people, according to a new estimate. Many dead people are still presumed to be buried under the rubble which will take several years to clear.
Making matters worse, the US president Donald Trump’s latest proposal has sought takeover of Gaza by the US and the permanent displacement of Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan. The proposal has been criticized as tantamount to ethnic cleansing of Palestinians and thus an egregious violation of international law. Should the US attempt to do that, it is likely to trigger a fresh cycle of violence. Israel has been quick to back Trump’s plan. Netanyahu has even volunteered to execute the plan for Trump. And this may be one of the reasons that he seems raring to abandon the ceasefire and resume hostilities with a goal to displace Palestinians. But this can be a recipe for a perpetual conflict.
The current hawkish government in Israel believes that continued military operations will bring security, despite the reality that after more than a year of relentless bombardment, Hamas remains intact. The real issue is that both sides are locked in a battle where neither can claim victory. For Israel, military supremacy has not translated into control. For Hamas, resistance has come at the cost of civilian lives and unprecedented devastation. Meanwhile, the people of Gaza are enduring one of the worst humanitarian crises of this century. Their homes are gone, hospitals are overwhelmed, and basic necessities—food, water, medicine—are being blocked at border crossings. Rebuilding the enclave is projected to cost $53 billion, but what good is reconstruction if another war looms just around the corner?
The world has seen this before. We have witnessed truces that last only until the next provocation. We have watched diplomatic efforts stall in the face of political intransigence. This calls for a renewed effort to achieve a long term peace, and this cannot happen without a permanent settlement. And far from settling anything, Trump’s plan is laying the foundation for a fresh cycle of violence.
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