The water bodies in Kashmir Valley are witnessing historic declines in levels due to an ongoing dry spell and minimal snowfall – January alone saw a 91% shortfall in rainfall. The decline is conspicuously visible in Jhelum, the Valley’s primary water source, crucial for irrigation, drinking water, and hydroelectric power. The current data from the Irrigation and Flood Control Department reveals that water levels in the river have fallen below the Reduced Level (RL) of zero at Sangam, with similar declines recorded at Ram Munshi Bagh and Asham. Tributaries such as Lidder, Pohru, and Ferozpora are also flowing at unprecedented lows.
For now, this has affected the Valley’s hydropower generation the most.It has plummeted by a whopping 84 percent, forcing the administration to rely on external sources to meet the shortfall. Power plants generated only 250 MW in January, a fraction of the 1200 MW capacity, with February seeing a further 5% decline. Unless water levels improve, the situation is expected to deteriorate.
The snowfall, however, is important not merely for tourism but as a lifeline for the glaciers which keep our rivers and streams flowing and agriculture fields irrigated. High-altitude areas retain their sub-zero temperatures, enabling the snow to endure throughout the year. Kashmir witnesses its heaviest snow during chilai kalan and the snowfall progressively reduces in February and March when spring sets in. This keeps glaciers replenished. Alarmingly, the experts fear a drastic reduction in snowfall by the century’s end, and this can have horrific consequences not just for Kashmir but the region.
Going forward, agriculture and horticulture are also going to be hit hard if the current dry spell lingers. With glaciers failing to replenish due to growing snow-deficit, and also melting prematurely due to an unusually warm winter, farmers are worried about the upcoming agriculture season. The likelihood of an impending drought could devastate apple orchards, paddy fields, and vegetable farms.
Needless to say, the tourism sector could be another casualty. Inadequate snowfall, even in the upper reaches, has already led to a sharp decline in visitors to the popular winter destinations like Gulmarg and Pahalgam, with hoteliers reporting a 20–50% drop in bookings. Already, the government has been forced to postpone the 2025 Khelo India Winter Games.
Over the last three years, the growing tourism has gone a long way to shore up the Kashmir economy and brought back employment lost to the successive security and Covid-19 lockdown. The boom in tourism, which forms 6.8 percent of Kashmir’s GDP and employs over two million people, has also had a positive spillover effect on other sectors.
Here’s hoping that snow does bless the hills and plains in the remaining period of winter. Snowfall is a boon for tourism and the Valley’s economy. There’s still time for snow as we are still in February. The Meteorological department has forecast light to heavy rainfall and snowfall as a fresh western disturbance is approaching. We are all waiting.
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