Ever since withdrawal of Kashmir’s special constitutional position in August 2019, centre has strictly denied separatist politics a space and a role in Jammu and Kashmir. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, the head of one faction of the Hurriyat Conference, was too sidelined in the shifting political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir. He has been under a prolonged house arrest, often kept away from delivering his Friday sermons at the Grand Mosque and denied freedom to freely meet people. Yet now, with a series of high-profile meetings in Delhi, murmurs of Centre-Hurriyat dialogue, and his involvement in an interfaith committee for Kashmiri Pandit rehabilitation, Mirwaiz finds himself back in the news. What does this mean for Kashmir, for New Delhi, and for Mirwaiz himself? There are no clear answers to these questions. Mirwaiz’s meeting with BJP MP Jagdambika Pal over the Waqf Bill, his interactions with Kashmiri Pandit representatives, and his heading the interfaith committee do not necessarily signal a shift. Considering Mirwaiz’s role has traditionally straddled politics and religion, the recent activities can easily fall within the scope of his religious responsibilities.
Over five years after the withdrawal of Article 370, Kashmir has changed beyond recognition. Once vaunted separatist conglomerate Hurriyat Conference has become extinct. Many of the grouping’s top leaders continue to be in jail or are under house arrest. This has hobbled its capacity to organize any political activity.
But even if the separatist leaders were free – and some of them are free – the situation would hardly be different. The government has outlawed any sign of separatist activity in whatever form and disproportionately raised the costs for any leader or an activist to go out and champion the cause.
Similarly, while Pakistan may not have reconciled to the constitutional changes in Kashmir, it has now kind of gotten used to the new state of affairs in the region. Its protestations about India’s actions in Kashmir haven’t found adequate traction across the world. In fact, the US and Europe, which largely influence world opinion, have been barely responsive – their attention is now centered on the ongoing war in Ukraine.
What does the future hold for Kashmir? The probability is that it will be more of the same. Even if the BJP loses power in the future, the Article 370 move remains a fait accompli. Although militancy has persisted in some form, it hasn’t affected the drift of normalcy that has by and large prevailed.
Hurriyat-centre dialogue has had a chequered past. Although the two have interacted frequently in the past, nothing was ever achieved. This is because the expectation of both the parties from the talks have been a polar opposite of each other. The Centre wants Hurriyat to join the national mainstream and play a role as a mainstream political party, but Hurriyat has long fought for the resolution of the Kashmir issue.
After the abrogation of Article 370, New Delhi no longer wants to engage with either Pakistan or any local entity in J&K over the resolution of what is seen as the Kashmir issue. It has also by and large successfully overcome the political and armed separatist campaign within the union territory. This has transformed the situation, and, in a sense, rendering not just India-Pakistan dialogue redundant but the Centre-Hurriyat engagement too. More so, the latter. Only discussion that appears to have been left to pursue between the two is if and when Hurriyat joins the mainstream.
Is that possible? On the face of it, such a prospect seems highly improbable. At the same time, it is also true that the separatist politico-religious outfit Jamaat-i-Islami, or a faction of it, did join the political mainstream last year and unsuccessfully fought Assembly elections. This was a turn of events that once seemed unthinkable. But even with Jamaat precedent behind us, Hurriyat following suit may not be as easy. Not just for ideological reasons, which are currently challenged by a dramatically transformed context, but also for the reasons of survival. Once cut off from its ideological moorings, Hurriyat would in all likelihood shrink into yet another mainstream party, more or less like yet another Apni Party, with no political future, as was amply demonstrated by the last year’s Assembly polls where even cadre-based Jamaat sank without a trace. While Hurriyat has the option to die as an organization, it has none to adapt to the altered situation. This makes it a tricky situation for the grouping to deal with. For now, everything is in the world of speculation. Mirwaiz has a prominent religious role in the Valley and his current activities are in line with that. As for his politics, the coming weeks and months will make things clearer.
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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