Six months after spectacularly denying the BJP a near-certain absolute majority in the parliamentary polls, the INDIA bloc seems to have once again been relegated to the background. More so the Congress that yet again seems to have lost the will to fight. Three successive defeats in Assembly elections in J&K, Haryana and the all-important Maharashtra have effectively reversed the gains the party had made in the parliament polls. Congress’ presence on the ground is depleting again and there are not even distant signs that it will recover anytime soon. That is, unless there is a fundamental shift in the kind of politics the party has been practicing for many years now. After a brief spark early this year, Congress once again seems to lack ideas, ideology, organization, and above all leadership.
Rahul Gandhi’s image makeover is now threatening to unravel. Gandhi’s speeches are sincere but carry little conviction in the prevailing polarized environment. He has paid attention to his communication style: he now frames his arguments in a way that generates a bigger ideological contestation with the BJP. But Gandhi scion has still a long way to go to match the prime minister Narendra Modi’s overarching persona.
So, Congress does need a deep surgery. It can only survive if it not just challenges the ruling party on day to day governance but also aggressively peddles a credible alternative vision of India. The chances of this happening in the near future look very bleak. The party comes alive spasmodically, and then retreats into a shell. The party’s post-parliamentary polls politics attests to this fact. It let go off a distinct advantage in J&K and Haryana Assembly polls, and subsequently in Maharashtra too.
In J&K polls, the party won just six out of 90 seats. In the Jammu division of the union territory where it was expected to do well, the party won just one out of 32 seats it was contesting. On the contrary, the party bagged five of the nine seats it contested in the Kashmir Valley where it has never enjoyed a conspicuous popular support. One main reason for the party’s poor performance in Jammu is believed to be its lacklustre campaigning. This was unlike the BJP, whose top leaders descended on the region to hold rallies. They included from prime minister Narendra Modi on down to Union Home Minister Amit Shah to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, party national president J P Nadda, and the UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
On the contrary, Rahul Gandhi addressed just five rallies in the region. He couldn’t attend the two planned rallies at Ramgarh and Chhamb on September 27, after his plane failed to take off from New Delhi due to bad weather. This cost the party dear. A similar scene more or less played out in Haryana, where all opinion polls, poll analysts and ordinary people saw the Congress winning the election. The BJP, in its best-ever performance in Haryana, won 48 seats, while the Congress secured 37.
The Congress failed to take the lessons from J&K and Haryana to Maharashtra. The party’s dismal performance in the state highlighted its ongoing struggles in mobilizing support and executing an effective electoral strategy. Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising Udhav Sena and Sharad Pawar-led NCP failed to present a cohesive and compelling alternative to voters, which significantly diminished their chances of success.
The opposition’s uninspiring politics continues to be its Achilles’ heel. In the months ahead, it must regroup and present a stronger, more credible challenge to the BJP. However, this will be no easy feat. The BJP, in its current form, demands not just opposition unity but also a compelling alternative ideological narrative.
After the Maharashtra result, one can’t help but wonder what makes the BJP tick and frequently come back from behind to stage a spectacular return to the centre stage? What makes the party grow from strength to political strength with such effortless ease, after some occasional reverses? The answer to the question is complex, yet seems very self-evident. In over ten years that the saffron party has been in power at the national level, it has inventively expanded its political appeal to be all things to all the people –right from its core rightwing base through the centre to the left. Combining ideology, welfare programs, and sectarian politics, the saffron party has transformed into a formidable and dominant political force.
In 2025, the Assembly elections in Delhi and Bihar will be crucial for the INDIA bloc to stay relevant as a political force. It can’t afford to lose either of the two. The Maharashtra win has restored the BJP’s status as a dominant party. It is the party that adapts and renews itself, enabling it to bounce back from setbacks. The opposition has to evolve a compelling narrative, align its fragmented factions, and demonstrate its ability to govern as a unified and viable alternative. The failure to do so could spell political irrelevance for the INDIA bloc, further consolidating the BJP’s dominance and diminishing the opposition’s credibility in future electoral battles.
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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