By Haider Abbas
The attack on the headquarters of a defense company in Ankara, Turkey capital, on October 23, could never have come on such a bad stage, when its President Taiyyip Erdogan, currently on a visit to Russian city Kazan, is on his all time low popularity. Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said members of the PKK were “likely” responsible for an attack at Turkish Aerospace Industries Inc. (TUSAŞ), in which five people were killed and 22 injured. PKK is Kurdish Workers Party, an outlawed terrorist organization in Turkey, European Union and United States. The next day, Turkey retaliated with attacks on PKK 32 targets. PKK did not own the responsibility.
The attack, as any defense analyst can easily adduce, can never happen until there is an internal sabotage, or else how come the attackers could scale multiple layers of security? The same way, of course, had happened in the wake of the killings of Qasim Suliemani (Iranian General), Mohsin Faqrizade ( Iranian nuclear scientist), Ibrahim Raisi (Iranian President), Ismail Hannieh (Hamas President), Fawad Shukr (Hezbollah General) , Hasan Nasrullah (President Hezbollah), Hashim Saif-ud-Din ( President Hezbollah), Yahya Sinwar (President Hamas) the list is endless. To add to it, is the revenge killing of Colonel Ahsan Daqsa of Israel by Hamas after Yahya Sinwar was killed.. Either it was the ‘internal informer’ or the intel input given to Hamas by Russia. There has been a war going on between Palestine Hamas and Israel since October 7, 2023. Around 50,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel and almost whole of Gaza has been flattened by Israeli forces now. Israel is right now engaged in a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Throughout the whole last year, Taiyyip Erdogan has played second fiddle to the global powers, and could do precious little, despite the rhetoric for Palestinians, and obviously this has dipped his popularity inside his country as well as among the larger Muslim world to no end. No wonder, his party has already lost the Istanbul local elections in March 2024, a barometer that a political change in Turkey is on the anvil. Why Taiyyip Erdogan is in such a catch -22 situation? He wanted Arab nations to rally against Israel, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and UAE but his call had no takers. This is ironically in the backdrop, that Palestine had been a part of the erstwhile Turkish Ottoman Empire, and therefore, Turkey has direct stakes inside Palestine. The Arab nations looked the other way, leaving Palestine and Turkey, the proverbial sick-man-of-Europe, with the baton of expulsion from NATO always on its head.
Notwithstanding, the contrasting features in Erdogan’s stand vis-a-vis Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu, as he called him a ‘Butcher of Gaza’ or likened him to Adolf Hitler, yet the so-called ‘no trade ban’ with Israel had remained absolutely ineffective. The Turkish exports to Israel via Greece had seen a significant increase, all the while as Israel reduced Gaza to a rubble. A detailed report in Thecradle.Co can be accessed to damn it all. It is also a known fact, that Israel, as apprehended by Erdogan, is all likely to attack Turkey, as next, but Turkey, could not, for the whole year, stand to Palestinians, on the lines of Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar-ul-Lah in Yemen or by Iranian supported groups in Syria and Iraq. It is very fresh in public memory as to how Turkey had went on to openly support Israel ‘great ally’ Azerbaijan in its war against Armenia, while Iran and Russia had sided with the latter.
The beleaguered Erdogan, has now rushed to attend BRICS summit, and share a stage with Russian President Vladimir Putin, China Premier Xi Jinping-the two giant nations, driven to the race for de-dollarization of world economy. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia younger cousin, UAE King Sheikh Zayed Bin Nahyan participated in the same along with Indian PM Narendra Modi. A new stage as an anti-NATO, anti-US led QUAD is getting built it. India, here is also into a balancing-act, as Putin has made a Xi Jinping-Modi handshake, after five-years, all to the gaze of US and its European Union allied. India has benefitted hugely, after the Russian-Ukraine war, as Russia supplied its oil to India at a heavily discounted-rates, which resulted in the balance of oil-rates worldwide.
Obviously, much to the angst of US and its allies like Canada, Australia etc, India’s presence at BRICS has roughed-up cold shoulders in the West, and this is the prime reason, for the spat between Canada and India, as Canada has accused the alleged involvement of India’s Home Minister Amit Shah, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval in the killing with Hardeep Singh Najjar in Canada, and into the attempt to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannum in US. Both Canada and India have withdrawn their respective ambassadors from each other.
But, a new surprise has also sprung up too? To US and Israel, as US biggest ally in Middle East, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has started to engage into joint-military drills with Iran. These rare military drills have come up after Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi had visited KSA earlier this month and met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, indicating an improvement in ties between the two oil-producing nations. Both the nations had severed their diplomatic ties in 2016 after the Saudi Kingdom executed an influential Shia cleric who was a critic of the kingdom and resumed the diplomatic ties in April 2024.
Will this KSA-Iran joint gesture remain symbolic or with will transform to have any substantial impact on the geo-strategic politics of the region is all yet to unfold. Israel is raring to go for an attack on Iran, which is very likely to be retaliated, in proportionate terms this time, and this is to further catapult the whole region into a bigger war. If there is to be a change of guard in US, after November 4 elections, and Donald Trump wins over, yet perhaps, things will change in order to remain the same.
- The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on issues of national and global interest for Kashmir Observer
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