New Delhi- Several exit polls on Saturday gave an edge to Congress-National Conference alliance in Jammu and Kashmir with the regional partner emerging as the single largest party.
The C-Voter-India Today survey put the National Conference-Congress alliance in J&K at 40-48 seats and the BJP at 27-32 seats in the 90-member assembly of the Union Territory.
Dainik Bhaskar pegged the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance at 35-40 and the BJP at 20-25 in Jammu and Kashmir.
Peoples’ Pulse saw the NC-Congress alliance with 46-50 seats as against the BJP’s 23-27, while Republic-Gulistan put the the NC-Congress tally lower at 31-36 as against the BJP’s 28-30.
In different polls, the PDP was seen winning between 5 and 12 seats, while others were also seen bagging 4-16 seats.
A recent survey by the Centre for Global Studies at Delhi University also predicted that the Congress is set to form the government in Haryana, while its alliance with the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir is likely to secure a majority.
The online survey, carried out between September 11 and October 3, involved 8,429 voters across 90 constituencies in each state.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance is projected to win 45 seats in the 90-member assembly, with the BJP trailing behind with 27 seats, the survey forecast.
The centre’s study is part of the CGS Review series, marking the 12th major election survey conducted by the institute. Around 700 students and researchers from various universities participated in the survey.
Professor Sunil K Chaudhary, Director of the Centre for Global Studies (CGS), described the results as a sign of India’s “democratic rise”, contrasting it with the “democratic instability” seen in some Western nations, the survey report stated.
Interestingly, players like Sajad Gani Lone’s People’s Conference and Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party, along with independents backed by Jamat-e-Islami, are projected to gain enough seats to play a possible decisive role.
The predictions suggest that Sajad Lone may secure victories in at least two constituencies, while Engineer Rashid, despite losing momentum in North Kashmir compared to his Lok Sabha performance, could still influence the outcome. Both individuals are expected to be critical in forming coalitions if fractured assembly is witnessed.
The Reliability of Exit Polls
Despite providing a snapshot of voter sentiment, exit polls have often missed the mark, especially in regions with complex and volatile political climates like Jammu and Kashmir. Several factors, including low voter turnout in certain regions, voting pattern shifts, and the dynamics between alliance partners, often lead to discrepancies between poll predictions and actual outcomes.
Exit polls rely on voter responses as they leave the polling booth, collected by survey agencies. This data is analyzed using mathematical models to predict seat allocations for different parties. However, the accuracy of these predictions can be influenced by the sampling methods, timing, and regional nuances.
In Jammu and Kashmir, factors such as voter turnout in militancy-affected areas, regional allegiances, and alliances could heavily impact the final results. This was seen in 2014 when exit polls failed to account for the eventual PDP-BJP alliance that governed the state until its collapse on June 18, 2018.
As the countdown to the official results begins, these exit polls provide insights into what could unfold on October 8. With NC-Congress predicted to lead and BJP maintaining a strong foothold, the possibility of a coalition government looms large. Smaller parties and independents are expected to play a key role in shaping the next government in the region.
Exit polls may guide public discourse, but they remain estimates. Given the lessons from 2014, only the actual election results will confirm the political direction of Jammu and Kashmir. Until then, the wait continues to see whether these predictions hold true or if the electorate delivers a surprise once again. The results of the assembly elections will be announced on October 8. (inputs from PTI & KNO)
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