Srinagar- As the assembly elections held after a decade in Jammu & Kashmir concluded on Tuesday, the political landscape is more unpredictable than ever. With 90 seats up for grabs, the race to secure a majority of 46 MLAs is heating up, and independent candidates and leaders from small parties are expected to play a decisive role in shaping the future of the region’s governance.
In otherwise “ungovernable” downtown Srinagar, a city once marred by violence, stone-pelting and frequent strikes, the transformation is visible. The windows of homes, which often bore the brunt of unrest, now shine with an unusual calm following the repeal of Article 370, which granted special autonomy to the region. But as peaceful as the streets may appear, the underlying tensions and questions about the region’s political future remain unanswered.
The upcoming elections are widely seen as a referendum on the central government’s 2019 decision to revoke Article 370. For the first time since that historic event, voters will have the chance to decide who governs them, and the stakes are high. With political alliances shifting rapidly, the outcome is uncertain, and experts caution that no one can predict with confidence who will come out on top.
Mehraj Ahmad Dar, a research scholar in Political Sciences remarked, “Jammu & Kashmir has a long history of surprising political alliances. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has allied with both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at different times, while the National Conference (NC) has also joined forces with both the Congress and the BJP. The unpredictability of political affiliations here is as changeable as the valley’s weather, which can be harsh and white in winter or vibrant and red like Chinar leaves in the autumn.”
The region’s complex political history traces back to 1987, when the National Conference faced off against the Muslim United Front, a coalition of religious groups. The election was marked by allegations of rigging, which many believe fueled the insurgency that followed. Fast forward to 2014, and the political landscape shifted dramatically again when the PDP formed a government with the BJP. That alliance, however, was fraught with challenges, from controversial policies regarding stone-pelters to the fallout from the killing of militant commander Burhan Wani, which drew one of the largest crowds ever seen for a funeral in the valley.
The elections being held now are the first since the removal of Article 370, and they are being viewed as a critical test of the public’s sentiment toward the decision.
Political analysts describe this election as emotionally charged, with voter turnout reminiscent of the significant participation seen in 1984 and 1987. For many in the region, these elections will be their first experience at the polls, having grown up amid decades of conflict.
“While Srinagar has traditionally been the heart of political activity, it is Jammu that may hold the key to deciding the election’s outcome this time around. The performance of various parties in Jammu could very well dictate the political calculations in the valley,” said Avinash, a Jammu-based political commentator.
Amidst this backdrop, small parties and independent candidates are likely to emerge as kingmakers. Figures like Sajjad Lone and Engineer Rashid, who beat former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah while incarcerated in Tihar Jail, are poised to play pivotal roles. Their influence, along with the involvement of former ministers, religious leaders, and even relatives of former militants, could tip the balance in what promises to be a fragmented and coalition-driven political scene. Political experts anticipate that the next government may be a “multigrain khichdi” — a coalition of parties with vastly different ideologies, each willing to make compromises in exchange for power. Whether it’s a national party joining hands with a regional force or an unexpected alliance of sworn enemies, the only certainty is that the future of Jammu & Kashmir’s politics is as unpredictable as ever.
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