Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has chosen to tap into the anti-BJP sentiment in Jammu and Kashmir by promising to restore statehood to Jammu and Kashmir if elected to power. He has also promised one-lakh jobs to the youth, something that is likely to resonate in a region with an unemployment higher than the average rate in the country. Would the Congress be able to make any inroads in the union territory, especially in Jammu division, its core constituency in the past? It is still difficult to tell. Truth is while Congress may have made some inroads, it has yet to draw any visible public support. In this, however, Congress is not alone. There is no discernible wave even in BJP’s favour. The electoral scene for the party is not as conducive as it was in 2014 when the Modi wave was at its peak. The ground looks a bit shaky now. Unlike 2014 when the BJP’s poll-plank was ‘44-plus’ seats to form the government in the then 83 Assembly house, the BJP has made no such pitch this time.
However, the saffron party hopes to better its tally than the 25 seats it garnered in 2014, enabling it to form a coalition government with the PDP in Kashmir. The party could very well do better this time in the now 90 seat Assembly, more so after the delimitation of the last year which is believed to have increased the Hindu majority areas of the Jammu division. If the BJP gets 30 seats or thereabouts, it could be in a position to not just form a government in coalition with a Kashmir party or a group of independent but could very well have a chief minister of its own.
But there is also a distinct possibility that the Congress could throw up a surprise in Jammu, and reclaim Jammu from the BJP, or at least win a reasonable number of seats. It could very well exploit the deep disaffection against the BJP across Jammu. Or the BJP may still carry the day riding on the goodwill it may have generated among large sections of people benefitting from the newly granted reservations in jobs.
Gandhi, on the other hand, can be expected to galvanize some support for the Congress. His thrust on the restoration of statehood and offer of one lakh jobs holds a powerful appeal for people not just in Kashmir Valley but in Jammu too. Should this happen, this can pave the way for a Congress-NC government which other parties and independents from the Valley might also join. But for now we can only keep our fingers crossed.
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