Srinagar- All eyes are on the Budgam assembly constituency in central Kashmir as it heads to polls tomorrow, with the National Conference (NC) and Congress alliance hoping to retain the seat. Since 1972, the seat has been a stronghold for these parties, with the NC winning it seven consecutive times since 1977.
This election sees former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah contesting as the joint candidate for the NC and Congress. Having won from the Beerwah constituency in 2014 but lost in Sonwar, Omar is now vying for both the Ganderbal and Budgam seats.
Analysts believe that Omar is the most prominent figure contesting from Budgam and has a notable edge due to the backing of Aga Ruhullah, the Member of Parliament for the Srinagar parliamentary constituency.
Besides Omar, there are seven other candidates in the fray. These include Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi (PDP), Aga Syed Ahmad Mosvi (Awami National Conference), Gazanfar Maqbool (Samajwadi Party), Nisar Ahmad Pal (Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Front – Secular), Mukhtar Dar, Mehraj-ud-Din Ganayee, and Nazir Ahmad Wani and all independents.
Budgam has a total of 125,266 voters, comprising 63,181 male voters, 62,081 female voters, and four third-gender voters.
Historical election results in Budgam
In the 2014 Budgam legislative assembly election, the total number of registered electors was 103,683, with 68,758 valid votes cast. Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, the candidate from the NC, won the seat with 30,090 votes. His closest rival, the PDP candidate Muntazir, secured 27,303 votes, resulting in a narrow loss by 2,787 votes.
In the 2008 election, the Budgam constituency had 88,713 electors, with 48,942 valid votes. Aga Syed Ruhullah of the NC won again, securing 19,652 votes, while PDP candidate Mohammad Kamal Malik came second with 9,692 votes, losing by a margin of 9,960 votes.
In 2002, the total electorate was 67,450, with 22,531 valid votes. Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, running for the NC, emerged victorious with 11,398 votes, defeating independent candidate Aga Syed Mahmood Almosvi, who garnered 4,753 votes, by a margin of 6,645 votes.
In 1996, the constituency had 58,029 electors, and 37,000 valid votes were cast. Syed Gh Hussain Geelani of the NC won with 15,360 votes, narrowly defeating Indian National Conference candidate Aga Syed Mehdi, who received 13,766 votes, by 1,594 votes.
The 1987 election saw 51,611 electors, with 42,059 valid votes. NC candidate Syed Ghulam Hussain Gilani won with 18,911 votes, defeating independent candidate Mohd Sultan Bhat, who garnered 12,556 votes, by a margin of 6,355 votes.
In 1983, Budgam had 42,376 electors and 30,606 valid votes. Ghulam Hussain Geelani of the NC secured victory with 17,037 votes, while INC candidate Assadullan Mir received 8,392 votes, losing by 8,645 votes.
The 1977 election featured 35,587 electors, with 28,744 valid votes. Ghulam Hussain Geelani of the NC won the seat with 14,324 votes, defeating Janata Party candidate Agha Sayeed Hassan, who garnered 11,799 votes, by 2,525 votes.
In the 1972 election, the Budgam constituency had 28,675 electors and 17,286 valid votes. INC candidate Ali Mohd Mir won with 8,448 votes, while independent candidate Agha Sayed Ali Shah Safvi stood second with 5,918 votes, losing by 2,530 votes.
Ganderbal Assembly Seat Set For Triangular Contest
The Ganderbal Assembly segment in central Kashmir is poised for a triangular contest in the upcoming elections, with former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah of the National Conference (NC), Bashir Ahmad Mir of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and former MLA Ishfaq Ahmad Sheikh, who is running as an independent candidate, as the key contenders.
A total of 15 candidates are contesting the Ganderbal seat. These include Bashir Ahmad Mir (PDP), Ab Rashid Ganaie (Jammu & Kashmir National Panthers Party), Omar Abdullah (NC), Tariq Ahmad Zargar (Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party), Zahoor Ahmad Malik (Republican Party of India – A), Gulam Qadir Wani (Rashtriya Lok Dal), Qazi Mubashir Farooq (Jammu & Kashmir Apni Party), Qaiser Sultan Ganie (Democratic Progressive Azad Party), and several independent candidates: Ishfaq Ahmad Sheikh, Saquib Rehman Makdoomi, Javid Ahmad Wani, Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, Ashiq Ahmad Sheikh (backed by the AIP), Farooq Ahmad Bhat and Majid Ashraf Mir.
The Ganderbal Assembly segment has a total of 126,504 voters, including 63,093 male voters and 63,410 female voters.
Political analysts believe the race won’t be easy for Omar Abdullah, as his former ally Ishfaq Ahmad Sheikh is now contesting as an independent candidate and will divide NC’s vote share. Sheikh’s wife, who serves as the DDC Chairperson, may further strengthen his support base. Besides Omar Abdullah and Bashir Mir, both Ishfaq Ahmad Sheikh and Qaiser Sultan Ganie are expected to secure a substantial number of votes.
The division of NC votes could benefit the PDP, particularly its senior leader Bashir Ahmad Mir, who previously secured around 25,000 votes in Kangan during the 2024 elections, though the seat is now reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST), according to analysts.
Past election results
In 2014, Ganderbal had 90,582 electors, with 53,539 valid votes cast. Ishfaq Ahmad Sheikh (NC) won with 19,478 votes, defeating PDP’s Qazi Mohammad Afzal by a narrow margin of 597 votes.
In 2008, the constituency had 76,971 electors, with 39,818 valid votes. Omar Abdullah (NC) won with 16,519 votes, defeating PDP’s Qazi Mohammad Afzal by 8,215 votes.
In 2002, Ganderbal had 68,402 electors, with 24,081 valid votes. PDP’s Qazi Mohd Afzal won with 11,622 votes, defeating Omar Abdullah (NC), who secured 8,752 votes, by a margin of 2,870 votes.
In 1996, with 49,558 electors, 23,403 valid votes were cast. Farooq Abdullah (NC) won the seat with 16,440 votes, defeating Congress candidate Qazi Mohd Afzal by 12,823 votes.
In 1987, the constituency had 47,051 electors, with 38,418 valid votes. Farooq Abdullah (NC) won with 30,255 votes, defeating independent candidate Abdul Khaliq Sofi by 22,809 votes.
In 1983, Ganderbal had 39,769 electors, with 33,745 valid votes. Farooq Abdullah (NC) won with 32,331 votes, defeating Congress candidate Ghulam Mohi Ud Din Saiati by a massive margin of 31,096 votes.
In 1977, the constituency had 35,118 electors, with 29,671 valid votes. Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah (NC) won with 26,162 votes, defeating independent candidate Ali Mohammad Taria by 22,653 votes.
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