By Tehleel Sathoo
The political scenario in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has always been dynamic but the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 shifted the region’s politics significantly. It resulted in an ongoing struggle for regional and national parties to adapt to the altered landscape, as voter bases change, new players emerge, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) consolidates its influence. Understanding this situation requires examining not only the circumstances leading to the abrogation but also the internal workings of key regional parties, the rise of new political forces, and the BJP’s strategic moves to reshape J&K’s politics.
The legislative elections of 2014 set the stage for many future developments in J&K. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mehbooba Mufti, built its campaign on opposing the BJP’s integrationist agenda but surprised many by entering a coalition with the BJP after the elections. While politically pragmatic, this coalition disillusioned the PDP’s traditional support base, many of whom felt betrayed by what they perceived as a compromising of the party’s autonomy-driven ideology.
Historically, the PDP’s platform was built around advocating for Kashmiri autonomy, standing in stark contrast to the BJP’s long-standing objective of integrating J&K fully into the Indian Union. When the PDP joined hands with the BJP, it weakened its credibility and alienated its voter base. Tensions grew within the PDP’s ranks, with some leaders supporting the alliance and others opposed. The coalition government, already fragile, eventually collapsed in 2018 when the BJP withdrew its support. This marked a turning point, setting the stage for the 2019 revocation of Article 370 and the drastic reshaping of J&K’s political fabric.
On August 5, 2019, the Indian government, led by the BJP, abrogated Article 370, stripping J&K of its special status and splitting the state into two Union Territories—J&K and Ladakh. This move was met with deep discontent in Kashmir, where the loss of statehood and autonomy were seen as affronts to the region’s identity. The central government, however, took preemptive measures to stifle large-scale protests, imposing a communication blackout and heavy security restrictions across the valley.
In the years following the abrogation, the BJP has tried to solidify its narrative that J&K is ready for new opportunities without Article 370. Still, political alienation remains palpable, especially as the region grapples with economic challenges and a lack of political representation.
In response to the abrogation, traditional regional parties like the National Conference (NC) and the PDP came together to form the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD). The alliance was a rare instance of former political adversaries joining forces to seek the restoration of J&K’s special status. Despite this united front, the PAGD was plagued by internal divisions from the start.
The primary tension within the alliance stemmed from the PDP’s tarnished credibility after its coalition with the BJP. The NC, seeking to reassert its dominance, began distancing itself from the PDP, further destabilizing the alliance. As the BJP encouraged splinter factions within these parties and bolstered new political formations, the opposition fragmented, creating confusion among voters and weakening the PAGD’s influence.
One of the most notable developments in J&K’s post-2019 political landscape has been the rise of new political entities, many of which are seen as proxies backed by the BJP to fracture the traditional regional vote. The emergence of these parties has significantly weakened the influence of established political forces like the NC and PDP.
For example, parties such as the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference, led by Sajjad Lone, and the Apni Party, headed by Altaf Bukhari, have positioned themselves as pragmatic alternatives. Both parties advocate for working with the central government rather than opposing it outright, framing their approach as being more beneficial to the people of J&K. The creation of the Democratic Azad Party by Ghulam Nabi Azad further underscores the fragmentation of J&K’s political sphere, with multiple new parties challenging the dominance of the NC and PDP. These developments reflect how regional politics has shifted towards a more fractured structure, with smaller parties vying for influence and voter support.
The BJP has actively capitalized on the fragmentation of J&K’s traditional political forces. By supporting breakaway factions and promoting new political entities, the BJP has effectively diluted the influence of established regional parties. The weakening of these opposition parties ensures that no single entity can secure a majority in future elections, forcing coalition governments that are more likely to include the BJP or be influenced by it.
This strategy was evident in the case of Engineer Rashid, a popular leader from Kashmir who was detained on terror charges allowed to contest lok Sasha elections defeating Omar Abdullah and later being released on bail in the lead-up to assembly elections. Rashid’s release, some argue, was intended to ensure that his supporters remained politically active, albeit in a fragmented opposition. While Rashid is not directly aligned with the BJP, his presence further complicates the political arithmetic for parties like the NC and PDP, which are already struggling to maintain unity.
Adding to the political complexity is the rise of independent candidates, many of whom were previously associated with the NC or PDP and associated members of the now banned Jamaat Islami, who infamously garnered indirect covert support to PDP. The respective previous constituency leaders being denied party tickets despite having a stronghold support and vote share in previous elections but now on sepulations of preventing any further dissent by mainstream regional parties , these individuals have decided to contest elections independently, further splintering the vote and complicating electoral dynamics.
In several constituencies, independent candidates have garnered significant support, sometimes even outperforming their former parties. Figures like Advocate Shabbir Ahmed Kulle Shopian and Aijaz Ahmad mir Zainpora have emerged as key political players, representing a growing trend of dissatisfaction with the established parties. Their present garner of support and previous consolidation of the voter bank demonstrates the increasing fragmentation of J&K’s political landscape and signals a shift towards more localised, personality-driven politics.
Given the current state of political fragmentation in J&K, the chances of any one party securing a clear majority in future elections appear slim. Coalition governments, featuring alliances between traditional parties, new political entities, and independents, are likely to become the norm. In such a scenario, the BJP, either directly or through its proxy parties, is positioned to play a key role in shaping governance.
However, the stability of coalition governments in J&K remains uncertain. The central government may once again impose Governor’s Rule if a coalition proves too unstable to govern effectively. If this occurs, it would allow the BJP to maintain a significant degree of control over the region, perpetuating its strategy of weakening regional parties and consolidating power through alliances and indirect influence.
The political landscape of J&K remains deeply fragmented and fluid in the aftermath of Article 370’s abrogation. While the BJP has successfully shifted the region’s political discourse, opposition forces continue to grapple with the changes, hindered by internal divisions and the emergence of new political entities. The rise of proxy parties, independent candidates, and fragmented vote banks has made it nearly impossible for any one party to dominate the political scene. As J&K moves towards future elections, the region’s political trajectory remains uncertain. Coalition governments are likely to dominate, with the BJP poised to exert considerable influence over the region’s governance, either directly or through strategic alliances. How this new reality will impact the long-term stability and identity of J&K remains to be seen.
Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
- The author is a legal professional with extensive experience in Human Rights law
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