On the stump in Doda on September14, prime minister Narendra Modi highlighted the transformation in Jammu and Kashmir over the last decade. He meant the change in terms of the overall improvement in the security situation and the development brought about during this period. The PM based his pitch for votes for the BJP candidates on this accomplishment. He also spoke for good measure about the alleged mess in the union territory created by three dynasties – Abdullahs, Muftis, Gandhis. Whether this rhetoric resonated in Doda, or for that matter across Jammu? It is difficult to guess. But going by the BJP’s electoral performance in the Jammu division since 2014 when it secured 25 out of the then 37 seats in the region, the saffron party’s political outlook does have takers. During this period, it has triumphed in all electoral contests in the region, including the recent parliamentary polls where it won both of the seats.
Will the party replicate this performance in the ongoing Assembly polls? It could very well do so. But the electoral scene for the party is not as conducive as it was in 2014 when the Modi wave was at its peak. The ground looks a bit shaky now. Unlike 2014 when the BJP’s poll-plank was ‘44-plus’ seats to form the government in the then 83 Assembly house, the BJP has made no such pitch this time. However, the saffron party hopes to better its tally than the 25 seats it garnered in 2014, enabling it to form a coalition government with the PDP in Kashmir. The party could very well do better this time in the now 90 seat Assembly, more so after the delimitation of the last year which is believed to have increased the Hindu majority areas of the Jammu division. If the BJP gets 30 seats or thereabouts, it could be in a position to not just form a government in coalition with a Kashmir party or a group of independent but could very well have a chief minister of its own, in all probability J&K’s first Hindu chief minister. But if it falls under 20, and the Congress does well, then the BJP will have no option but to settle for a position of an opposition party.
So which way things are probably headed? It is still uncertain. As things stand, there is no visible wave in favour of any party in the union territory, including the BJP. The political activity has generally been suppressed since the revocation of Article 370. Other than the BJP, no other party has found it safe to peddle its politics, nor have people been allowed to freely express their opinion. This has had a chilling effect, and made public sentiment largely inscrutable.
This has created a complicated situation. While the consequent discontent should go against the BJP in the union territory, particularly in its stronghold in Jammu, the party is anticipated to do well. This despite the fact that Jammu has experienced deep unease about the turn of events since the withdrawal of Article 370. The region has feared loss of jobs, land and identity. In fact, other than the BJP, all other parties in Jammu have expressed their unhappiness with the existing situation including Congress. It remains to be seen whether any of this discontent would impact the prospects of the BJP.
For now, this has effectively set up a contest broadly between the BJP and the rest. The Hindutva party has to contend not only with a deep disaffection in Kashmir Valley but also some discontent in Hindu majority Jammu, otherwise its bastion.
Will this work to the BJP’s detriment or advantage? It depends how deep the sense of grievance in Jammu is against the new domicile and land laws. In case, the grievances about the perceived loss of the jobs and the land outweighs the nationalistic versus anti-national debate, the BJP could be in deep trouble. Should the saffron party lose Jammu it will be a big public disapproval of its Kashmir policy. The party which tomtoms the fact that the revocation of Article 370 enjoys wide acceptability in J&K will find it difficult to justify the far-reaching move.
However, the situation in Jammu is much more complex than it appears. So far the region hasn’t given enough indication that it is unhappy with the existing state of affairs. True, Jammu is also witnessing a degree of anxiety about the post-Article 370 state of affairs. People apprehend that their region would be the first destination for the eligible outsiders choosing to settle in J&K. But these apprehensions are not deep enough to cause people to protest publicly. Besides, in case of Jammu, the fears of a demographic change are trumped by the expectation of development of the region and more importantly the anticipated shift of political power away from Kashmir Valley. In fact, under the current dispensation this shift has already happened. And with delimitation giving more Assembly seats to Jammu, this will also be inherited by the future democratic government. So, unlike Ladakh, Jammu is least likely to hit the road against the prospect of a demographic change and the potential loss of land to outsiders.
In Kashmir Valley, on paper, the Congress-NC alliance looks strong and set to garner a majority of seats between them. But there are many imponderables that can play out, one of them in the form of Engineer Rashid who is currently drawing crowds all across the Valley. His alliance with Jamaat has apparently made him a more formidable challenger. Whether he actually pulls off a significant electoral victory is still anybody’s guess. For now, we can only keep our fingers crossed.
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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