Srinagar- Out of the eight assembly constituencies in Srinagar district, there is a stronghold of National Conference (NC) i.e. Khanyar segment where the party’s candidate, Ali Muhammad Sagar has never lost elections against anyone since 1996.
Sagar, who is among the 10 candidates in the electoral fray this time, has won the elections four times in a row. He was first elected as the Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) in 1996 elections.
While the seat is set to go to the polls on September 25, in the second phase of assembly elections, a total of 91226 electorates are scheduled to cast their ballots in favour of their favourite representatives. The electorates include 45407 males and 45816 females, besides three Transgender.
The prominent candidates out of the 10 vying for the seat include Ali Muhammad Sagar and former Deputy Mayor Srinagar Municipal Corporation (SMC) Sheikh Imran, who is contesting as an independent candidate.
The other candidates in the battlefield include Peoples Democratic Party’s Tafazul Mushtaq, Apni Party’s Bilal Ahmad Mir, Farooq Ahmad of National Panthers Party (BHIM), five other independent candidates.
A total of six independent candidates are vying for the seat in the phase-II.
However, the question remains whether the four-time MLA, Ali Muhammad Sagar will be defeated in the upcoming assembly elections or will he continue to retain the seat for the fifth time in a row.
Sagar first won the elections in 1996. He later retained the seat in three consecutive assembly polls in 2002, 2008 and 2014.
In the previous 2014 assembly elections, Sagar had managed to secure 6505 votes and defeated his nearest rival by a margin of 1,167 votes.
Political analysts believe that it would be difficult for the candidates in the fray to defeat the four-time MLA from the constituency since has worked for his people and also gained a huge faith amongst the people within the constituency.
“There seems to be no strong contender against him this time. It seems a cakewalk for the NC candidate to retain the seat,” the political analysts believe.
3-Way Contest Shaping Up In Eidgah
The Eidgah constituency is all set to witness a competitive election battle, with the National Conference’s Mubarak Gul, a five-time legislator, facing a stiff challenge from Peoples Democratic Party’s senior leader Mohammad Khurshid Alam.
Gul won the seat in 2014 by a narrow margin of 608 votes, defeating PDP’s Ali Mohammad Wani. However, this time around, the political dynamics in the constituency have shifted, with isolated resentment against Gul.
The NC-Congress alliance has also not gone smoothly, with Imtiyaz Ahmad Khan, the Congress district president and former 2014 assembly election contestant, resigning and filing his nomination as an independent candidate.
Tensions have surfaced among NC supporters in the constituency, with many expressing dissatisfaction with Gul’s candidacy. The race is expected to be even more intense this year, with 13 candidates in the fray.
The Jammu & Kashmir assembly elections will be held in three phases across 90 constituencies, one of which is Eidgah. The major contenders include the NC-Congress alliance, PDP, People’s Conference, Bharatiya Janata Party, Apni Party, Samajwadi Party, Democratic Progressive Azad Party and six independent candidates.
Constituency demography profile
Eidgah is a part of Srinagar, falling under the general seat and is among the 90 constituencies. In 2014, 58,822 electors were registered, with a voter turnout of 27.8%. The competition involved eight candidates, including PDP’s Ali Mohammad Wani, who was runner-up to Mubarak Gul.
2024 candidates & polling trends
Political experts say that Gul may face a stiff challenge from Alam, a former trade leader and member of the legislative council (MLC), who rejoined PDP in July after a brief stint with the People’s Conference. Khan, a former Congress district president, is also expected to play a pivotal role as an independent candidate, potentially dividing the vote and affecting Gul’s chances.
In the forthcoming assembly elections for the Eidgah constituency, which is going to polls in the second phase of the three-phase election schedule, a total of 15 nominations have been filed, of which only 13 are contesting.
Polling for the Eidgah constituency will take place on September 25. Results for all 90 constituencies will be declared on October 8.
Voter dynamics & polling trends
In the 2014 assembly polls, the constituency saw a relatively low voter turnout of 27.80%, with the deposit of 6 out of 8 candidates being forfeited due to their poor performance. The 2024 assembly election in Eidgah is set to be competitive between NC-Cong alliance candidate Mubarak Gul and PDP’s Mohammad Khurshid Alam.
Political experts are forecasting a fiercely contested battle between Mubarak Gul and PDP’s Alam in the upcoming elections, with Khan emerging as a potential vote cutter. The dynamics in the constituency are shaping up to create a close race between the key contenders.
Mubarak Gul, despite facing internal dissent, has been chosen by his party to contest. Analysts believe that while Gul’s political experience and loyal voter base are strong, the presence of Khan as a former contestant could cut into Gul’s share of votes. Khan’s involvement is expected to be a game-changer.
On the other hand, PDP’s Alam, with his extensive political background and local influence, is seen as a formidable opponent. Alam has the capability to turn the race around, leveraging his experience and strong local connections. With Khan cutting into Gul’s votes, Alam could benefit and increase his chances of securing a higher vote share.
With a mix of seasoned politicians like Gul and Alam, and strategic players like Khan in the fray, the race remains unpredictable. According to political analysts, the outcome may hinge on how effectively these candidates can rally their support bases, but Khan’s influence might ultimately tip the scales in Alam’s favour.
The race is expected to remain tight until the final vote count, with every candidate working hard to secure a winning position.
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