Srinagar- The Habba Kadal Assembly constituency in Old City, traditionally considered a National Conference stronghold, is set to witness a heated battle in the 2024 elections.
With 16 candidates in the fray, the constituency has been represented by National Conference’s Shamim Firdous since 2008.
Observers say that this time around things are different and it is no longer a guaranteed win for the party. The primary contest appears to be between Shamim Firdous of the NC and Arif Irshad Laigroo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Several other candidates including Muzaffar Shah of the Awami National Conference (ANC) and three Pandit contenders are also vying for the seat.
BJP has fielded Ashok Kumar Bhat and Sanjay Saraf of the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party is also in the fray. Saraf had secured 830 votes in the last assembly election held in 2014.
Pertinently, Habbakadal Assembly Constituency has 95,546 electorate among which 47,404 are males and 48,133 are females while 9 are third gender voters.
Since 1977, the NC has won the Habba Kadal seat six times, with Shamim Firdous representing the constituency after victories in 2008 and 2014. However, this election is expected to be anything but a cakewalk for the NC, with several factors in play.
In the last elections held in 2014, Shamim Firdous only 4,955 votes followed by Moti Koul with 2596 votes, Zafar Meraj of the PDP stood at the third place with 992 votes.
The Boycott Factor
Historically, Habba Kadal, an epicenter of the anti-government protests has seen low voter turnout due to calls for election boycotts by separatist groups.
Observers say these boycotts often worked in favor of the National Conference, as fewer votes were cast. This time, however, the situation is different.
Speaking to Kashmir Observer, Arif Laigroo, who is running on the PDP ticket, also said that the National Conference’s previous victories were more a result of the poll boycotts than genuine support.
“People are frustrated with the lack of development, narrow roads, and rampant drug addiction among the youth,” Laigroo said, saying that the low turnout in the past made voters complacent, allowing the National Conference to retain power.
Observers also believe that the delimitation exercise has reshaped the constituency, adding new areas like Chattabal, Kani Mazar, Khanqah and portions of Karan Nagar. These new localities may prove decisive in breaking the traditional voting patterns.
The Anti-Incumbency Votes
Political commentators believe that the anti-incumbency factor in the Habba Kadal constituency will play a major role in this election. Speaking to Kashmir Observer, locals say that they have hardly seen MLA in the last so many years.
“There is hardly any development in our constituency, youth are unemployed, roads and lanes are narrow, there is congestion everywhere and we haven’t seen our so called MLA anytime” said a local wishing not to be named.
Observers say that due to the lack of development, unemployment, drug problems, and neglect of the constituency, voters are disillusioned with the NC and are now looking for an alternative.
The Pandit Vote Bank
The Pandit community, once played a significant role in the constituency’s electoral dynamics, has seen its influence decreased due to migration and low voter participation.
Raman Mattoo, the last Kashmiri Pandit MLA, won the Habba Kadal seat as an independent candidate in 2002. Before him, Piyar Lal Handoo of the National Conference was elected from the constituency in 1987 and again in 1996.
Despite this, the 2024 election has three Pandit candidates contesting the seat. Among them, Ashok Kumar Bhat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seen as the most prominent, though observers doubt his ability to secure significant support due to the division of the Pandit vote.
Observers say that Pandit voters generally stay away from elections and the presence of multiple Pandit candidates will further divide their votes.
While the Pandit community’s participation could potentially alter the outcome, it is expected that their vote will be split, reducing the likelihood of any one Pandit candidate making significant gains.
On the other hand, Shamim Firdous is confident of her victory saying that the PDP’s reputation has been tarnished by past associations with the BJP and controversial comments made by PDP leaders.
Speaking to Kashmir Observer, Shamim said that the people of Habba Kadal remember the ‘milk and toffee’ remarks, and they do not trust the PDP anymore.
“They are the people who brought the BJP into Kashmir, and the people do not trust them anymore. With the grace of Almighty, though winning is not easy, we are confident of our victory.”
However, Arif laigroo of the PDP believes that the locals are disheartened with the lack of representation by the NC MLA in the last many years.
” I am running a door to door campaign and telling people to come out and vote. Habba Kadal has witnessed no development and has been neglected by the NC MLA for the last many years. I am hopeful Habba Kadal will elect new leadership and witness a positive change” Laigroo said.
With anti-incumbency sentiments growing, particularly in the newly added areas, the 2024 election could mark a turning point in this historically National Conference-dominated constituency.
As Habba Kadal heads to the polls, the future of this once NC-dominated seat hangs in the balance, with both Firdous and Laigroo confident in their chances of victory.
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