In a potentially game-changing move, the Delhi Court on Tuesday released Awami Ittehad Party chief Engineer Rashid on bail. There was some build up to the release though, with a section of public opinion agog about the widely anticipated development. Now that Rashid’s temporary release has come about, the attention has shifted to the ongoing electoral arena in Kashmir Valley, which is likely to change profoundly with his arrival on the scene. Ever since he won parliamentary election from Baramulla early this year garnering over 4.5 lakh votes, Rashid’s political profile has become almost equivalent to his competitors in the Valley. He is now seen as a major threat to the political dominance of the National Conference and the PDP. And this seems for real now. Four and a half lakh people who voted for him form a majority across almost 15 of the 18 Assembly constituencies in North Kashmir. Should the momentum his party built in the parliamentary election carry over to the ongoing election, Rashid could potentially sweep North Kashmir, making him a powerful player in the 90-member J&K Assembly. He could also be a challenge in central and South Kashmir, should his party decide to contest from there. During Lok Sabha, elections, Rashid was seen as a politician who stood up to New Delhi following abrogation of Article 370 and chose jail to surrender as others are perceived to have done.
In August 2019, soon after the withdrawal of J&K’s special constitutional status, he was arrested by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) in a case of terror funding. The incarceration brought him a wave of sympathy during the parliamentary election when his sons Abrar Rashid and Asrar Rashid mounted a spirited electoral campaign. Rashid’s was a wild card entry at a time when the contest seemed to be evenly split between the former chief minister Omar Abdullah and the People’s Conference chief Sajjad Lone. They were considered the only serious candidates in the fray in North Kashmir at the time. But Rashid’s decision to contest which came late in the day changed everything. The victory has made him a far bigger leader in the Valley than he has been so far. Will he be able to replicate his party’s frenzied Lok sabha election campaign in the ongoing Assembly polls? It can be anybody’s guess. The general expectation, however, is that he is likely to do so. His release will certainly give his party the headstart it desperately needed. Unlike the Lok Sabha election, the AIP now has many faces contesting the Assembly polls, and some of them do have baggage. Will Rashid be able to retain focus of the campaign on him only? Will he be able to override the baggage of some of his candidates? Will he be able to dispel the creeping suspicions about his own agenda that may haunt his unexpected release? Beside the early public euphoria that may follow his return to Kashmir, his success in the election will depend on how credibly he is able to convince people of his bonafides.
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