Although it is still early days, there is a palpable enthusiasm among people about Assembly elections. One reason for this is that the exercise is being held after a decade. Also, for the past six years, J&K has been under governor’s rule with bureaucrats ruling the roost. This may have its advantages as for as pursuing a development-centric agenda, but it can’t supplant an accountable democratic rule. The unprecedented circumstances that prevailed in the erstwhile state following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 made the governance more challenging. So, a degree of government-people disconnect has persisted. This, in turn, has given rise to a yearning for a return to democratic rule, something that was evident in the preceding Lok Sabha election. Voters chose to depart from the boycott politics, especially in the Kashmir Valley, and instead participated more freely in the electoral exercise, posting a historic turnout of 58% in five parliamentary seats. Since 1990, J&K’s voting percentage had never crossed the 50% mark.
The election holds interesting possibilities for Jammu and Kashmir. The National Conference expects to secure a majority of its own or atleast emerge as the largest single party. The BJP expects to repeat the 2014 performance. In fact, with fresh delimitation giving it an edge in many more constituencies in Jammu, the party expects to even better its 2014 tally. However, there are no signs so far of any political wave in its favour in Jammu. On the contrary, there are signs that people in Jammu are upset with it over not just the delay in Assembly elections and the restoration of statehood but also over the legal and administrative changes that are seen as unfavourable to Jammu. Would this resentment reflect in the election outcome is anybody’s guess. It is possible that the newly resurgent Congress under Rahul Gandhi would once again make inroads into Jammu and undercut the BJP. In that case, the BJP would no longer be able to assert a role in the future elected government. That said, in the Valley, the NC could face a tough challenge from the PDP, which remains relevant and also from Rashid’s AIP. The parties like People’s Conference and the Apni Party may yet get a seat or two. But for an election that truly gives people a sense of involvement and empowerment, it must be held in a free and fair environment. But if the Lok Sabha election is any guide, there is every reason to expect that the Assembly election will also be clean.
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