As the Assembly election campaign gains momentum, it is a contest between the old and the still credible regional political order and the new one created out of nowhere in the past five years. And through it all, the BJP looms large over the scene.
The old order is represented by the National Conference and the PDP as well as the Congress party, which is a national party though. The BJP’s rise in the former state is a post 2015 phenomenon when for the first time it won 25 of 37 seats from Jammu division in the then Assembly elections. The BJP subsequently formed a coalition government with the PDP which secured 28 seats.
The new order is represented by the Apni Party led by the businessman-turned politician Altaf Bukhari, the DPAP headed by Ghulam Nabi Azad and the People’s Conference (PC) of Sajad Lone. Although the PC is an old party, its new avatar owes itself to the political restructuring of the Valley following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019.
The ongoing Assembly polls are the first major electoral exercise in which the old and the new political order are face to face. Though the NC looks apparently strong and Mehbooba remains politically very much relevant, the parties have a work on hand to retain their centrality. The NC has got a head start by forging an alliance with the Congress. The PDP feels left out.
The unraveling of the Peoples Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), reflects the deep-seated divisions within the ranks of the Valley parties. Originally formed with the lofty goal of advocating for the restoration of Article 370, the PAGD has devolved into little more than a memory, with its constituent parties failing to even convene, let alone pursue their shared objectives. The NC and the PDP, both integral members of the PAGD, have begun charting independent courses driven by their own political calculations – more so, the NC which was the first to go solo in the parliamentary elections in the Valley.
Going forward, the electoral scene looks fragmented, with many parties vying for Assembly seats. Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party and the surprise entry of the independent candidates affiliated to Jamaat-i-Islami into the fray has added a new dimension to the electoral contest. However, as of now, there is little evidence of any wave in favour of any party, albeit on paper the National Conference looks on a firmer wicket. Things could become clear in the days and weeks to come. Here’s wishing the discourse to stay constructive and the situation peaceful.
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