With the Election Commission of India announcing Assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir on Friday, the political situation in the union territory is evolving with each passing day. The National Conference has chosen not to ally with any Valley-based party, although it has expressed itself open to an alliance with the Congress. The BJP has also decided to go it alone. Former Apni Party leader Chaudhury Zulfikar Ali has joined the BJP. This is a shot in the arm for the saffron party in Jammu division where it hopes to secure a majority of seats.
The political discourse is rife with rumours and speculations. One of them is that the Democratic Progressive Azad Party leader Ghulam Nabi Azad might return to Congress, although a DPAP spokesman has denied. Already, the party’s senior leader in Kashmir Valley Taj Mohiuddin has rejoined the Congress. Also, it is rumoured that Engineer Rashid who pulled off a surprise victory in North Kashmir parliamentary constituency may be released. His organization Awami Ittehad Party has already filed a bail application in the Supreme Court a few days ago and the party expects a positive outcome. Should Rashid be released, it has the potential to change the political game in the Valley. He polled nearly five lakh votes in Baramulla constituency and his party thus could be a strong contender in not just several Assembly constituencies in north Kashmir but also across the Valley.
Be that as it may, the election holds interesting possibilities for Jammu and Kashmir. The National Conference expects to secure a majority of its own or atleast emerge as the largest single party. The BJP expects to repeat the 2014 performance. In fact, with fresh delimitation giving it an edge in many more constituencies in Jammu, the party expects to even better its 2014 tally. However, there are no signs so far of any political wave in its favour in Jammu. On the contrary, there are signs that people in Jammu are upset with it over not just the delay in Assembly elections and the restoration of statehood but also over the legal and administrative changes that are seen as unfavourable to Jammu. Would this resentment reflect in the election outcome is anybody’s guess. It is possible that the newly rejuvenated Congress under Rahul Gandhi would once again make inroads into Jammu and undercut the BJP. In that case, the BJP would no longer be able to assert a role in the future elected government. That said, in the Valley, the NC could face a tough challenge from the PDP, which remains relevant and also from Rashid’s AIP. The parties like People’s Conference and the Apni Party may yet get a seat or two. But for an election that truly gives people a sense of involvement and empowerment, it has to be free and fair. And it is hoped that the ECI ensures that this exercise remains free from government intervention.
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