Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha’s statement on Wednesday that things will return to normal in Jammu and Kashmir within a few months is encouraging but to be interpreted with some caution. His remarks follow a renewed upsurge in militancy, especially in the Jammu region, which has threatened the relative peace that had been achieved in the past five years.
The recent attacks have shifted the focus from the Kashmir Valley, which has witnessed a decline in militant activities relative to Jammu. It shows a strategic move by militants to exploit perceived vulnerabilities in the region. The last five years have seen sporadic but major incidents of violence in Rajouri and Poonch, indicating a pattern of sudden spikes followed by periods of relative calm. This cyclical nature of violence poses a challenge to security forces. .
Unlike the declining militant presence in the Kashmir Valley, Jammu has become the new hotspot for militancy. The dense forests have become a haven for militants, making it challenging for security forces to track them down. The reduced presence of security forces in Jammu, resulting from the ceasefire with Pakistan and redeployment to Ladakh, has created a void that militants seem to be exploiting.
While violence escalates in Jammu, the overall situation in Kashmir Valley remains relatively stable. The Valley has witnessed a drastic decline in the number of militants and the militant recruitment in recent years, primarily due to over 500 militant casualties, most of them local youth. However, despite this drop, militants continue to target off and on to make their presence felt.
The surge in violence in Jammu has sparked concerns that it could disrupt peace in the union territory, in the process potentially reviving a union territory that has mostly been pacified. While tourism in J&K is flourishing, the persistence of violence in Jammu could deter tourists and impact the overall tranquility in the UT.
The future remains uncertain as we ponder whether the violence in Jammu will escalate further or subside. The past five years have shown a pattern of sudden spikes followed by lulls in militancy activities. While some militants vanished into Pakistan after short-lived escalations in 2021, the situation in Jammu may be more complex, requiring a more comprehensive approach.
Recurrent search operations have been launched to track down militants in the region, but progress has been slow. If the violence continues, it suggests that the militants are determined to extend their separatist campaign to Jammu.
However, it is essential to prioritize efforts to build trust between the security forces and the local population. Engaging with the people in the region and addressing their concerns can help foster a more secure and stable environment.
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