The fresh amendments to the J&K Reorganization Act, 2019, which grants more authority to the lieutenant governor (L-G) of Jammu and Kashmir, signals that assembly elections in the region may be imminent. By increasing the Lieutenant Governor’s control over the transfers and postings of all-India service officers like the IAS and IPS, as well as appointments of judicial officers, police, and law and order matters, the central government appears to be paving the way for a more centralized administration ahead of potential elections.
These amendments indicate that the union government aims to safeguard its strategic changes in Jammu and Kashmir, ensuring they remain intact irrespective of the political shifts that may follow upcoming assembly elections. The maneuver effectively restricts the new government’s ability to reverse the changes of the past five years, thereby securing New Delhi’s long-term agenda for the region.
The changes have certainly dampened the public enthusiasm about future Assembly elections which must be held before the September deadline set by the Supreme Court. For they deprive the exercise of any meaning. The ruling arrangement will continue as it is. Just some more government posts will be occupied, whose main purpose will be employment for scores of elected politicians rather than any change for the better for the voting public. There will be no accountable governance for the people and the poor elected legislators will be falsely blamed for any administrative lapses they don’t control.
All political parties except the BJP have opposed the changes. But it is unlikely to make any difference. There is a wide divergence in how the BJP-led central government and the J&K opposition parties view the state of affairs in the union territory.
It is true, holding polls in J&K following the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019 is a tricky exercise. Much has happened since June 2018 when Governor’s rule was imposed after the PDP-led coalition government lost its majority following the withdrawal of support by the BJP: J&K lost its semi-autonomous status leading to seven months of communications and security blockade. The period since then has witnessed a drastic political makeover of the state-turned-union territory, so much so that in many respects, the current J&K bears little resemblance to what it was before the repeal of Article 370.
What is more, an uneasy calm has settled over Kashmir. The protests and the stone-pelting incidents have gradually tapered off. The militancy which held out stubbornly for some time has also abated – albeit, it is recently seeing a renewed resurgence in parts of Jammu division. Around 600 militants, most of them local recruits, have been killed in recent years. The fresh estimates indicate a number of militants well below 50, perhaps the lowest since the militancy began in 1989. This is the first time in three decades that the number of militants has dropped to such a low number, and security agencies are optimistic that this number will continue to decrease in the near future. That is, if there is no further replenishment of the ranks in the form of local recruitment or influx from across the border.
But with all this supposed march towards peace, Kashmir remains a deeply uncertain place, a possible factor in the centre’s calculations to first keep delaying polls, and now hand more powers to the LG. There seems to be an apprehension that the existing calm might unravel, should the government pass into the hands of an elected government, no matter who gets to be the chief minister. An elected government with constitutional powers by its very nature will be accountable to people. The government’s every move will be accounted for, making it sensitive to popular opinion and perception.
Since August 2019, the BJP government at the centre has brought one after another legislative and administrative measure to cast Kashmir in a premeditated image, which the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called Naya Kashmir. After going the whole hog with revoking the former state’s autonomy and bifurcating it into federally administered areas – J&K and Ladakh – there has been no looking back for New Delhi. Its goal will be to lead its Kashmir project to its logical conclusion in the near to medium future.
So, the center wouldn’t want an elected government that interferes with its plan. This makes even early restoration of statehood a distant possibility. New Delhi remains anxious about the possibility of things unraveling in Kashmir, should it allow a free reign to the new government. For the BJP, the Assembly election in J&K isn’t primarily about winning or losing, contrary to what some opposition parties claim. The party’s main concern is the pacification of Kashmir, whether forced or through other means.
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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