The General Election 2024 which began on April 19 had concluded after seven phases on June 1. 4th of June, the D-day of election results, turned out to be a monumental moment as the BJP-led NDA was served a major dent, having lost its parliamentary majority. The BJP-led NDA bagged 294 seats in the 543-member Parliament. On the other hand, the INDIA Opposition bloc finished with 234 seats,38 less than the majority mark.

4th of June is being seen as an unexpected turning point as it managed to wane the seamless reign of PM Modi. The result was especially surprising given the manufactured narrative of NDA’s invincible might and the faith that the exit polls had shown in it. Now that tides have turned, major newspapers are trying to weigh-in on the winds of change. Here’s what they’re saying in their latest editorials. 

Politics Returns to the Old Normal

Excerpted from The Times of India 

An election where the outcome was widely held to be a foregone conclusion, has given a result with many surprises, overturning many assumptions. None of the takeaways is brand new to Indian politics. But they were quite unexpected in 2024.

After a decade of single-party dominance, which led to successive majority verdicts in elections characterised by a pan-India theme, LS 2024 reverted to an earlier pattern. There wasn’t a single overriding issue that animated the electorate. Neither did candidates fade into near-irrelevance in a presidential type of contest. In that sense, LS polls went back to being normal and should lead to the restoration of democracy’s checks and balances.

For the first time since 2009, a new govt will be a coalition. Unlike the last two occasions, allies cannot be brushed aside. They will have a say in critical decisions. Managing inconsistent demands from allies will be a skill that will have to take centre stage again. Therefore, we are now unlikely to see hugely disruptive decisions introducedat short notice. But that doesn’t preclude the likelihood of reforms, as coalition govts earlier have carried out significant changes.

This was a coalition that seemed to be falling apart in the months leading up to the election. Notwithstanding early setbacks, INDIA played its cards well. In UP it defied all odds. A state that was regarded as BJP’s trump card turned out to be its weakness. That was the case in Maharashtra too, giving INDIA a huge boost in the two largest states. In both states, the alliance played a tactically smart game. 

Voters have clearly indicated that jobs and economic aspirations matter. India’s macroeconomic parameters are sound, and its economy is growing fast. However, unless this translates into greater opportunity for a burgeoning youth population and a belief that upward mobility is within grasp, a party in govt will be in trouble. The economic message from the results is that jobs matter.

People at the centre: On the Election results 2024

Excerpted from The Hindu 

Respect for the people requires all parties to remain steadfast to their pre-poll alliances and positions. The Congress has managed to form and lead an alliance in spite of the many internal contradictions, and its leader, Rahul Gandhi, has elevated himself in the public eye as a challenger to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Congress organisation, strategy and communication worked for it this time, while the BJP came up short on all three factors when measured against its claims. The party runs a serious key person risk, with its campaign, strategy and thinking all dependent on one person, Narendra Modi. The overwhelming charisma and style of Mr. Modi served the party well in 2014 and 2019, but the same factors were corroding the party’s organisational strengths and withering its regional and local leadership. These factors, and the accumulated anti-incumbency of two terms, caught up with the BJP. Still, that it won a third term, though in alliance, is remarkable. Its ideological agenda has taken deep roots in its strongholds, enabling it to win what it has even amid clamour about inflation, unemployment and other livelihood issues. By winning a seat in Kerala, the BJP breached a fortress, and by defeating the BJD in Odisha, the party has captured the imagination of a new terrain. That said, the people did not take kindly to its strategy of portraying its return to power as an inevitable fate of Indian democracy.

The Congress strategy of making livelihood issues and equity questions the core of its campaign seemed to have worked well in its direct contests with the BJP in Karnataka and Rajasthan. Both parties that operate at the national level should learn the right lessons from this verdict. The lifeblood of Indian democracy is its diversity and the BJP has been less than respectful of that in the last 10 years. The new government will be required to deal with two particular questions that are critical to India’s federalism and diversity — the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies after the publication of the first Census after 2026; and the ongoing work of the 16th Finance Commission which is scheduled to submit its report in 2025. Both these call for political wisdom, wide consultations and maturity. The verdict for a coalition government at the Centre underscores the diversity of India, and the role of States and regional political parties in its federalism. Coalitions are not a deficiency in a plural democracy, but quite the opposite. Rather than attempting inorganic and transactional coalitions, both the Congress and the BJP should nurture genuine, organic coalitions with regional parties and social groups. Enforcement of uniformity cannot be the aim of a federal polity, and the people have spoken on this issue loud and clear in 2024.

Verdict 2024 is for not just a Government but also an Opposition

Excerpted from The Indian Express

The final numbers will not tell the full story of this election verdict. The BJP, most of all, must carefully read between its lines and beyond them, too. A decade after the Narendra Modi-led party brought back the single-party dominance system to national centrestage, having replaced Congress as its centrepiece, India is set to have coalitions on both sides of the government-Opposition divide. The people of this diverse country have spoken and they have said that they are not one but many. And that they will not be straitjacketed by the homogenising political project that imposes One Leader, One Party, One Religion.

In days to come, this verdict will be decoded and its many strands parsed by players — on all sides — in ways that are sometimes self-serving. But it seems already clear that Scoreboard 2024 punctures the concentration of power and the thinning of checks and balances that had become normalised and institutionalised in the Modi government for 10 years, with the consequent shrinking and stifling of breathing spaces for the political Opposition as well as civil society institutions. The BJP-led NDA is poised to form the government again, and a third consecutive term in power is an undoubted achievement. But it would do well to acknowledge that its mandate this time is both quantitatively and qualitatively different: It opens up room in the system for other players. And carries a warning the BJP can ill afford to either ignore or downplay.

Coalition Dharma and the New BJP

Excerpted from Hindustan Times 

Narendra Modi appears set to begin his third consecutive term as Prime Minister (PM). But unlike in 2014 and 2019, the allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are in a position to demand their space, in fact, even force their agenda on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Thirty two seats short of a simple majority, the BJP will need to rewire its relations with allies and reformat the NDA, perhaps, along the lines it existed two decades ago. The post June 4 BJP, in office, may need to think about coalition dharma, a much-discussed phrase between 1996 and 2004, when the NDA came into being and Atal Bihari Vajpayee headed multiple coalition governments.

As it stands, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) are central to the NDA’s numbers with 16 and 12 MPs, respectively. Their leaders, N Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP and Nitish Kumar of the JD(U), are experienced, shrewd and demanding politicians who are masters at manoeuvring coalitions. Accommodating their interests will be a challenge that the BJP needs to negotiate before it begins the business of governance. Pet ideological projects may have to be shelved or negotiated for the sake of coalition dharma as the BJP did in the 1990s. Consensus building will have to be the bedrock of governance even though Modi, as PM and chief minister of Gujarat, never had to negotiate the minefield of coalition politics. The BJP may also have to recalibrate its expansion plans and tailor its tactics to be on the same page with allies to let the government run smoothly. The NDA may need a seasoned politician as convenor — George Fernandes did the job for Vajpayee — to iron out wrinkles, if any become visible.

All this is important since assembly elections are due in Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra later this year, and in Bihar next year. The BJP has not done well in these states, and it has a mess in Maharashtra to sort out, where the Congress, given up for dead not too long ago, won more seats (13) than the BJP (11). The losses in Maharashtra, where the BJP is in office, have as much to do with drought and farm distress as with poor coalition management. Rising unemployment and food inflation are pan-Indian phenomena, which can singe the NDA in general, and the BJP in particular. Much depends on how the BJP leadership interprets the results and what change of course the party will take up to reconcile with the electoral losses. 

• Views expressed do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer 

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