Despite the advancing parliament election campaign in Jammu and Kashmir, the atmosphere on the streets is shorn of any excitement. Most of the campaign is confined to social media and media interactions. There have been no major public rallies despite the apparent normalcy, nor have any of the issues that have been raised resonated with people. It is not that there aren’t issues that concern people but the parties are choosing not to touch them. The reason may be that some of these are too hot to handle and could have personal consequences for the parties and the politicians. Instead, they are making do with the blame game and muck-raking against rivals, some dredging up decades-old history so as to avoid dealing with the present. Biggest current issue so far is the alleged support of the BJP to some parties and the latter’s inability to dispel the impression.
People on their part remain largely indifferent, making it challenging to gauge their partiality towards any party. It has now been ages since Kashmir has witnessed a visible wave in favour of any party or a politician. The parties have mostly won for the simple reason of being the default option for the voters.
That said, the ongoing polls remain crucial for Kashmir: they are the first major electoral exercise being held following the repeal of Article 370 in 2019. And over the past five years, Kashmir has more or less altered beyond recognition in almost every aspect. Mainstream politics has transformed too, with not just new political actors emerging on the scene but its frame of reference has also changed. Many issues that they freely raised have become taboo. Similarly alliances forged in recent years have come unstuck.
As the Lok Sabha election campaign gains momentum, the once-united opposition finds itself fractured and scrambling to maintain relevance. This fragmentation, coupled with the BJP’s strategic maneuvering, presents a formidable advantage for the ruling party at the centre.
The unraveling of the Peoples Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), reflects the deep-seated divisions within the opposition ranks. Originally formed with the lofty goal of advocating for the restoration of Article 370, the PAGD has devolved into little more than a memory, with its constituent parties failing to even convene, let alone pursue their shared objectives. The National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), both integral members of the PAGD, have begun charting independent courses driven by their own political calculations – more so, the NC which was the first to announce candidates for the three parliamentary seats in the Valley.
The NC’s decision to contest the upcoming elections independently, retaining its stronghold in the Kashmir Valley while extending support to Congress in Jammu, reveals a move to safeguard its traditional base. In response, the PDP has opted to vie for seats in the Valley, further fragmenting the opposition vote. Also, smaller parties aligned with or perceived to be close to the BJP, such as the People’s Conference, Apni Party, and Democratic Azad Party, have entered the fray, diluting the opposition’s strength and inadvertently bolstering the BJP’s electoral prospects.
Despite the absence of a visible wave of support for any party, including the BJP, in J&K, the saffron party stands to benefit from the opposition’s disarray. The political landscape, stifled since the revocation of Article 370, has left little room for dissent or alternative narratives, playing into the BJP’s narrative of unapologetic Hindutva. However, beneath the surface, simmering discontent persists, particularly in Jammu, where concerns over job losses, land rights, and identity loom large.
In Ladakh, the transition to union territory status has exacerbated feelings of alienation, with locals apprehensive about the influx of outsiders and the potential erosion of their cultural and economic autonomy. Figures like climate activist Sonam Wangchuk have emerged as voices of resistance, highlighting the need to safeguard Ladakh’s rights. However, whether such grassroots movements will translate into electoral outcomes remains uncertain.
As heavyweight politicians like Dr Farooq Abdullah, Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, and Ghulam Nabi Azad vie for electoral success, the stakes are high not only for their respective parties but also for the broader political landscape of J&K. For Azad, in particular, the election presents an opportunity to resurrect a faltering political career, while for Mehbooba, it is a chance to stem the tide of desertions plaguing her party. Similarly, for the Abdullahs, the election is a test of their political dominance in the face of BJP’s ascendency.
The fragmented opposition, internal discord within alliances, and the BJP’s adept political maneuvering have combined to tilt the electoral scales in favor of the saffron party in Jammu and Kashmir. While discontent simmers beneath the surface, the lack of viable alternatives and the BJP’s default advantage in Jammu division may prove decisive in shaping the outcome of the upcoming elections. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the only certainty is the uncertainty that pervades the region’s electoral politics.
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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