As we head into the spring of 2024, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has cast a spotlight on the impending summer, forecasting above-normal maximum temperatures and prolonged heat waves from March to May. The heat is set to grip Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, north interior Karnataka, and southern Maharashtra, with El Nino conditions persisting until May, amplifying the intensity of the forecast. The weather experts have drawn attention to the historical correlation between El Nino and heightened heatwave conditions, signaling an extended duration of scorching temperatures.
Amidst the concerning summer forecast, an anomaly has emerged in Kashmir Valley, typically known for its cold winters. The region witnessed an unusually warm winter from November through January – including the 40-day harshest period of Chillai Kalan – marked by an absence of snowfall and day temperatures hovering above 15 degrees Celsius, comparable to New Delhi. This uncharacteristic warmth raised alarms, hinting at potential repercussions for the year ahead. This, in turn, has triggered concerns about the depletion of glaciers, which could impact water bodies and pose challenges for agriculture and hydropower facilities. As one of India’s coldest places experiencing a deviation from its winter norms, Kashmir’s situation highlights the broader impact of climate change on diverse regions.
The southern part of the country has already experienced an early onset of warm weather, with February 2024 being the warmest on record since 1901. South peninsular India saw a mean temperature of 27.13 degrees Celsius, surpassing the normal of 25.93 degrees Celsius by 1.2 degrees.
True, the warming winters are one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. Sadly, this troubling state of affairs is not going to end anytime soon. As things stand, climate change looms large as the leading global challenge over the next ten years. The World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks Report lists climate change at the top in its four structural forces “that will shape the materialization and management of global risks over the next decade.” More alarmingly, climate change dominates the risks landscape across all three timeframes outlined in the report – 2024, 2023-2024, and the ten-year time horizon.
The convergence of El Nino, prolonged heatwaves, and unexpected winter warmth, particularly in Kashmir, highlights the need for proactive measures in water resource management, agriculture, and energy planning. As we navigate the complexities of a changing climate in 2024, staying vigilant and adaptive becomes paramount, especially in regions seeing unexpected deviations from their traditional weather patterns.
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