Srinagar- After over two months – and one of the longest dry spells – Kashmir valley finally received snowfall during the first week of February. However, with the fresh white blanket came warnings of increased avalanche risk.
The Jammu and Kashmir Disaster Management Authority issued avalanche warnings for higher reaches of Kashmir advising people to take precautions and avoid venturing in the avalanche prone areas.
On February 8, a massive avalanche struck the Sonamarg area on the Srinagar-Leh Highway. Earlier, twin avalanches had struck the famous ski-resort, Gulmarg and the prompt response by the rescue teams ensured the successful evacuation of skiers, who got trapped in the avalanche.
In the wake of escalating temperatures, winter months are witnessing a surge in avalanches across various regions, experts say.
According to Prof. Dr. Shakil Romshoo, a climate change expert and Vice Chancellor of the Islamic University of Science & Technology, the frequency of avalanches in the months of February and March has increased over the years.
“The traditional wetness associated with these months, coupled with increased temperature increases the frequency of avalanches,” Romshoo said.
Highlighting the relation between temperature rise and avalanche occurrences, Romshoo said that when higher temperatures lead to wet snow, the friction between ice and rock diminishes.
“When there is an increase in temperature, snow on the mountains, which is usually very sloppy, experiences a dangerous transformation. The melting of wet snow reduces the friction at the interface between the icy layers and rock This reduction in friction triggers the downward sliding of snow blocks, constituting the basic phenomenon and the underlying reason for the increasing frequency of avalanches,” Romshoo said.
He further pointed out that areas like J&K and Ladakh have witnessed numerous casualties, both civilian and military, due to avalanches in recent times.
Last year in February, two Polish nationals died and 19 others were rescued after a group of tourists were hit by a massive avalanche at Gulmarg. On January 29, 2023 a woman and a teenage girl were killed after they came under an avalanche in the Kargil district of Ladakh.
While research specifically examining changes in avalanche patterns in Kashmir remains limited, broader global studies say that the repercussions of these changes are manifold and varied, from retreating glaciers to an increase in the frequency and intensity of snow avalanches.
The third pole, in May last year reported that less and wetter snow leads to more avalanches in the Himalayas. “When snow accumulates to form snowpack in the Himalayas, this creates a natural ‘glue’ that prevents fresh snow from sliding off the mountain slopes in an avalanche. A decrease in snow in the region has reduced this ‘glue’ leading to an overall increase in the frequency of avalanches,” the report quoted a researcher.
Scientists have established that temperature and precipitation patterns in the Indian Himalayas have changed significantly over the past 100 years. With its steep mountain slopes, the Himalayan region is naturally avalanche-prone.
Studies suggest that climate change is a major driver of permafrost degradation. Permafrost is the ground that remains frozen for a longer time, sometimes upto 2 years. Warmer air temperatures would mean less winter season snow cover insulating the ground. This exposes permafrost to more heat transfer. As permafrost thaws, it causes destabilization of steep mountain slopes and terrain.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department, December recorded an unprecedented 79 percent deficit of rainfall in Jammu and Kashmir and January 2024 was one of the driest and warmest January in the last 43 years for most of the stations of Kashmir.
Speaking to Kashmir Observer, Dr Parvaiz Ahmed Head of Department, Geography and disaster Management also said that due to global warming, melted snow penetrates deep within, causing the mountain slope to move rapidly.
“Under climate change, we observe more avalanches. Global warming results in more snow melting, initiating movements that can lead to disastrous avalanches,” Dr. Parvaiz said.
He said that the impact of global warming is evident in Kashmir, with mean minimum and mean maximum temperatures increasing over the decades and additionally, there is a decrease in precipitation, both in terms of rainfall and snowfall.
“Global warming and climate change has changed the way it used to snow,” he said, adding, “The biggest impact is seen in the form of shorter winters and early springs. The seasonal shift affects snowfall, reducing its sustenance and freezing potential. Glaciers are receding, and the snow no longer transforms into ice masses due to early melting.”
He added that decades back, it used to be snowfall even in the months of March April, in higher reaches it used to be huge. When snowfall used to take place in upper reaches it used to sustain and freeze. Now all that has changed.
While acknowledging the challenge of long-term avalanche prediction, Dr. Romshoo emphasized the feasibility of short-term forecasting. He explained that while it’s difficult to predict avalanches over extended periods, forecasting for shorter timeframes, ranging from days to weeks, is possible with advancements in avalanche and weather forecasting technologies.
“In long term, the prediction of avalanches is uncertain. The longer the time period the uncertainty of forecasting the avalanches increases. Overall, it has been seen that there is an increase in frequency of avalanches,” Romshoo said.
As climate change continues to influence weather patterns in Kashmir, experts stress the urgency of research and preparedness to address the growing risks associated with avalanches in the region.
Dr. Ahmed emphasized the need for Early Warning Systems (EWS) to mitigate the risk of avalanches.
“Developing advanced EWS involving ground sensors sensitive to environmental changes is crucial. Placing these systems in hazardous regions can provide early warnings about avalanche initiation, ultimately saving lives.”
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