Despite the global headwinds due to the war in Ukraine and the expanding conflict in the Middle East, the Indian economy is doing relatively well. India’s economy is experiencing robust growth at approximately 7% per year, making it the fastest-growing among the world’s major economies. But the benefits aren’t sufficiently trickling down to people. Despite this economic expansion, job opportunities remain limited, and the competition is intense, with only graduates from well-known colleges securing desirable positions. In the 2022-23 period, the unemployment rate for college graduates stood at 13.4%, a figure significantly higher than the country’s overall unemployment rate of 3.2%, as per official government data. According to reports, merely 8% of India’s total workforce is employed in the organized sector, referring to businesses registered with the government. The majority of the population sustains their livelihoods in the extensive informal sector, emphasizing the prevalence of employment outside the formal, regulated economy.
The recent Kantar India Union Budget Survey 2024 has revealed the prevailing anxieties among urban Indians, with rising inflation and job security topping the list. The survey’s findings reveal a significant shift in concerns compared to the previous year, with 57% of respondents expressing worry about rising inflation, marking a substantial increase from 27% in 2023. Job security is another area of growing apprehension, with one in three Indians expressing concerns about potential layoffs. These worries are not unique to India, as global issues like recession, economic slowdown, and multinational conflicts weigh on the minds of individuals worldwide.
Despite these concerns, a remarkable 57% of Indians maintain a positive outlook on India’s economic growth in the coming year. This optimism is rooted in the belief that the government will play a crucial role in safeguarding the country from economic challenges. With 2024 being an election year, there is an expectation that the government will be responsive to public sentiment, acting as both a protector against inflation and a benefactor through middle-class-friendly budget measures, potentially offering relief in income taxes.
This year’s pre-election budget is thus eagerly awaited and the union government will be expected to address a wide array of concerns of the middle class, and more pressingly those living below the poverty line. Expectations are moderate, but there is hope for policy changes, especially in income tax structures, to enhance disposable income. The BJP which goes to elections with all guns blazing would be cautious about the economy, more particularly, the urgent need for jobs for the burgeoning demographic of youth entering the workforce.
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