Srinagar: The loss of anything of value strikes hardest, once it has lapsed into history. An old photograph of a snow clad Dachigam national park in Central Kashmir, and home to critically endangered Hangul, was uploaded by Former Wildlife Warden, and conservationist Tahir Shawl on his Facebook profile. The photograph brought home this truth. Yet, the loss barely stops with wistful nostalgia; the loss of snowfall is real, worrisome and manifold spread not just over the much-lamented horticulture and electricity generation, but also over less talked fisheries and wildlife.
Experts say that the low-pressure system over Himalaya is largely missing not allowing westerlies to reach here. The pressure difference drives the moisture into Kashmir which has not happened till date. This is linked to global climatic change forcing an unusually dry winter. Even as the weatherman has forecasted snow over hills and later over plains from Thursday afternoon to January 31, the gaping snow deficit will remain, and thus the dangers occasioned by its absence will persist.
“The reduced precipitation over an extended period in temperate regions could have a profound impact on wildlife in Kashmir Himalaya. The scarcity of snowfall translates to lessened water levels in various water bodies, potentially leading to heightened stress among animals. While small bouts may not immediately pose serious threats, prolonged low water availability can exert pressure on the wildlife species,” Ecologist and founder of NGO, Wildlife Research and Conservation Foundation (WRCF), Mehreen Khaleel told Kashmir Observer.
Khaleel said the unpredictable shifts in climate may further induce changes in animal behaviour. “For instance, the decreased precipitation (rain/snow) observed in recent years has influenced the hibernation patterns of bears, making them more visible during winter. The recent sightings of bear along with its cubs near Shankarcharya temple in Zabarwan range have only confirmed this misgiving portending disaster. This shift in climate conditions might also impact the number of migratory birds choosing places like Kashmir for winter breeding, driven by the scarcity of water in their usual habitats. Additionally, an early departure of these birds may occur due to rising temperatures during the winter months.”
She said, these changing weather conditions could trigger early flowering, consequently impacting the wild animals and insects that depend on these flowers as a food source. Moreover, the absence of precipitation heightens the risk of forest fires, adding an additional layer of concern to the delicate balance of ecosystems.
While the agriculture and allied sectors face direct impacts from insufficient snowfall or rainfall, the fisheries sector is particularly vulnerable because the habitat itself is water.
“Changes in the precipitation levels are first going to affect fisheries. Fisheries are divided into two types — wild fisheries (natural water bodies) and aquaculture (controlled cultivation in raceways, ponds, etc.). The less precipitation leads to habitat shrinkage, affecting water levels and food availability for fish. Also, the shallow water bodies heat up easily, impacting fish in cold water zones like Kashmir,” Dr Mansoor Rather, Junior scientist, Aquaculture, SKUAST-Kashmir told Kashmir Observer.
Rather elaborated that the temperature changes stress fish directly, affecting their food sources like plants and insects. “Physical-chemical changes in water parameters, including decreased dissolved oxygen, affect fish physiology, reproduction, and growth. Further, in shallower water bodies, there are more chances of pollution and impurities. As a result, fish move to broader and safer zones.”
The experts said that in aquaculture, the primary sector in Kashmir is trout farming. Continuous water flow is crucial for trout, but reduced precipitation threatens water sufficiency. Maintaining the required cold water in shallower bodies becomes challenging. If there is continued dry spell, the experts said that water conflicts may arise with competing needs for irrigation and drinking water supply, considering fisheries as a secondary production sector.
As the fish species residing in cold temperate zone are likely to suffer, the temperate fruits, such as apple, pear, plum, cherry, and peach are also not spared from the ill-effects of the dry weather. They have specific chilling requirements crucial for their growth. For instance, apples require a minimum of 16 hours of chilling. Any variation or insufficient chilling hours can affect the fruit, causing issues in bud dormancy and bud breakage. The absence of snowfall may result in premature flowering, impacting the complete development of male and female flower parts required for fertilization.
“Incomplete development of these parts leads to abnormal fertilization and a reduction in fruit set. A compromised fruit set creates a cascade of problems, which, in turn, influences fruit quality. This situation ultimately contributes to fruit drop, diminishing the shelf life of the fruits,” Junior Scientist at SKUAST, Kashmir, Dr Sheikh Khursheed told Kashmir Observer.
He said, the significance of snowfall becomes apparent as it plays a pivotal role in sustaining the health and quality of temperate fruits. “While it is possible to cultivate apples in tropical and sub-tropical conditions, like Jammu. However, in absence of chilling requirements, there will be no fruit set. A prolonged dry spell further exacerbates the situation by limiting water availability for irrigation during crucial fruit development stages. This scarcity not only affects fruit size and shape but also carries numerous consequences for overall fruit quality.”
Dr. Khursheed detailed out that typically, flowering occurs in March, extending into April in some locations, completing by the end of that month. “This year, there are reports of bud swelling in fruits like plum and peach already. If the current weather persists, early flowering is anticipated. Nevertheless, there is still time, and if we experience snowfall until February 15, the chilling requirement for these fruits will be met. However, a dry February could have adverse consequences.”
The scientist said while indigenous varieties like ‘Ambri’ are resilient to climatic variations, newer apple varieties are highly dependent on fulfilling their chilling requirements. Failure to do so may result in a deterioration of quality, making it challenging to compete with the imported fruit.
“If the current situation persists, we suggest implementing mulching (It is the act of covering the soil with mulches, such as bark, wood chips, leaves, and other organic material, in order to preserve moisture and improve the condition of the soil) or using polythene sheets to orchardists in order to conserve moisture. However, this alone may not meet the full requirement. The administration could consider providing financial support, crop insurance, or other supportive schemes. Additionally, there are low-chilling requirement varieties available. However, there are market challenges as the taste and quality may not match those requiring chilling. For instance, in Punjab, farmers have cultivated such varieties with relatively lower market value,” Dr Khursheed said.
Kashmir can only wait, watch and hope then with bated breath. Experts unanimously say it is high time that adaptation measures are adopted even as climate change calls for a concerted global action.
“Since this is something that has to do with global weather circulation patterns, there isn’t much we can do besides reducing our carbon footprint. However, the mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be framed through informed scientific knowledge,” Dr Irfan Rashid, Assistant Professor, Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir said.
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