Srinagar- As Kashmir navigates through the impacts of this prolonged dry spell, the tourism sector has become a focal point, reflecting the intricate interplay between climate patterns and economic sustainability in the valley. The current scenario eerily echoes a prescient warning from a 2013 research endeavor, highlighting the challenges foreseen a decade ago that are now unfolding with grim actualization.
Kashmir Observer, earlier this month reported on how prolonged dry weather is squeezing the winter tourism in the valley and the same was anticipated by a group of researchers nearly a decade ago. The findings of the show that winters are getting prolonged with little snowfall on account of climate change. The average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing statistically significant increasing trends for winter months and that the precipitation is showing decreasing trends.
The team headed by Prof. Shakeel Ahmad Ramhsoo through this study has made an attempt to know the impact of climate change on the snow precipitation, water resources, and winter tourism in the two famous tourist resorts Gulmarg and Pahalgam of the Kashmir Valley.
According to the study,“Climate change is a severe threat to snow-related winter sports such as skiing, snowboarding, and cross-country skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains.”
It said that the mountain areas are sensitive to climate change and the implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation.
The skiing season at Gulmarg tourist resort usually commences before Christmas (around mid-December) and continues till mid-April. However, due to increase in winter temperature, the actual time period for snowfall has undergone a change with December and January receiving scanty or no snowfall while February and March witnessing heavy snowfall.
Similarly, the quantity of snow, according to the study, has clearly reduced over the years as revealed by the snow depletion curves. Although occasionally it does have spells of heavy fall, the inability of snow to freeze and develop into a long lasting snow cover in February and March owing to higher temperatures results in faster meltdown and if followed by rainfall into devastating floods.
A considerable area in these regions (Gulmarg and Pahalgam) remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons.
“…However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from the past few years,” the study says, adding, “Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers.”
The study further maintains that the predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate models are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region.
“Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region,” the study adds.
Notably, both the tourist resorts witness huge rush of tourists and many national and international skiers travel to Kashmir during winters for sikking. However due to ongoing dry-spell and no snowfall, hundreds of skiers have canceled the hotel bookings and have abandoned the plan to visit the valley.
“This is impacting our business as many players have canceled their bookings,” said Farhat Nai, a snowboard instructor.
The study further noted that the winter accumulation of snow has drastically reduced owing to an increase in average minimum temperatures.
“Depletion curves also reveal that there is a considerable decrease in snow precipitation from 2008 to 2012. The trend is more pronounced in the months of February and March. There is also a negative relationship between annual air temperature (1991–2001) and snow cover area pro- portion from 2008 to 2012,” it says.
“A considerable change both in snow precipitation and snow cover will lead to the depletion of snow for skiing and water resources for different sectors of economy,” it added.
The study further added that the tourism industry, which contributes much to the GDP of the state, will be severely affected because of less snow available for skiing and other skating programs.
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