India’s former High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria has made some sensational claims about the diplomacy between the two countries in his book titled ‘Anger Management: Troubled Relationship Between India and Pakistan.’ One such claim involves the aftermath of the dogfight in February 2019 when the Pakistani Air Force captured an Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman whose Mig-21 Bison was shot down in Pakistan territory. Bisaria asserts that Islamabad was deeply alarmed by “credible” intelligence about India’s purported missile strike plans. This led Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Imran Khan to urgently seek a midnight call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which was turned down.
Another one is about Pakistan’s ISI tipping off India through Bisaria about a specific Al Qaeda revenge attack in Kashmir after the killing of its commander Zakir Musa in May 2019. Tip-off, according to the diplomat, turned out to be genuine. This, however, made no redeeming difference to the deeply embittered relationship between the two countries. In fact, the ties between them reached their nadir later that year when on August 5, 2019, New Delhi withdrew Kashmir’s special status. Pakistan sent Bisaria back and cut off trade ties with India.
Ever since, ties between India and Pakistan have been frozen. And it looks unlikely that there will be any thaw anytime soon. The neighbours could certainly be expected to spring a surprise though. There are several precedents for this. In February 2021, just over a year after New Delhi revoked Article 370 that granted special status to Kashmir under India’s constitution, the two countries reinstated the 2003 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control. They even engaged in a back-channel dialogue. There was suddenly a brief spell of bonhomie. Both Imran Khan and the then Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Bajwa called for dialogue and resolving Kashmir in a peaceful manner. Bajwa even made a pitch for the two nations to “bury the past,” and move on. He also called for “geoeconomics” to replace geopolitics as Pakistan’s worldview to ensure peace and prosperity in the region. And this apparent rapprochement played out against the backdrop of the India-China stand-off along the LAC. The LoC truce allowed India to focus more on confrontation with China. It also enabled Pakistan to deal with instability along its border with Afghanistan where the Taliban was about to win the two-decade long war with the US.
But the mutually convenient ceasefire could not culminate into a formal bilateral dialogue. Kashmir was learnt to have become the sticking point, with Islamabad seeking restoration of Article 370 and India refusing to do so. Since then the two countries have grown further apart. With New Delhi having succeeded to a large extent to pacify Kashmir, at least as far as civilian unrest, the old rules of engagement do not apply. In a recent interview with the ANI, the foreign minister S Jaishankar said that India had made the Pakistan’s policy to “use cross-border terrorism to bring India to the table” irrelevant by “not playing that game now.”
While that may be true as far as India’s current policy towards Pakistan, the opposite of it also holds some merit: and that is, Islamabad in recent years has appeared less than eager to support flagging militancy in Kashmir Valley. More so, following the abrogation of Article 370. when a section of public opinion in Kashmir and the rest of India expected otherwise – albeit, Islamabad did raise diplomatic ante which, in turn, achieved nothing. This could be both a result of Pakistan’s ongoing troubled economic situation and its beleaguered geopolitical standing. Or it could also be the outcome of the dominance enjoyed by the security forces in the region, which has increasingly narrowed the space for militants to operate. Hence, probably, the tactical shift of militancy to the Jammu division, which had otherwise been militancy-free over the last decade and a half. The militancy in Rajouri and Poonch has witnessed a sharp rise throughout 2023 and it remains to be seen how the situation evolves in 2024.
Going forward, it looks unlikely that India and Pakistan could go back to any engagement in the near future. Immediately, however, both countries are going to their respective national polls and their outcome would be crucial to how the ties between them shape up. It is believed that the re-election of PM Modi, as looks likely, and the possible return of Nawaz Sharif to the helm in Pakistan would be more conducive to resumption of dialogue between the two neighbours. They could pick up where they left off in 2017 when Sharif was forced out of power. However, the regional situation has since transformed. And with the abrogation of Article 370, the complexion of the Kashmir issue too has altered. So, for the two countries to re-engage, they would need to evolve new terms of engagement. And it is easier said than done. This would call for a diplomatic leap of faith, more so, on the part of Pakistan.
Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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