Srinagar- Kashmir has been facing a prolonged dry spell for over a month, with minimal chances of significant weather activity until January 10.
Experts attribute the issue to a shift in weather patterns, suggesting that the valley is likely to have a milder winter this year due to the ongoing impact of El Niño.
The valley will likely experience more frequent and extended droughts in the future, according to experts, who claimed the indicators of climate change are evident in Jammu and Kashmir.
“Shift in weather patterns brought on by El Niño, a periodic sequence of climatic changes that impact parts of the Pacific region, has significantly contributed to the dry spell in Kashmir,” Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, Director Meteorological Department J&K, said.
“Drought-like conditions might arise in several parts of Kashmir if precipitation in January stays below normal. This happens when El Niño occurs,” Ahmad told Kashmir Observer.
According to the MeT Director, this is the longest period without significant snowfall since 2015. He said, “In 2015, the valley experienced its first major snowfall on January 24.”
El Niño and La Niña episodes, Ahmad said, typically last between 9 to 12 months, but they can occasionally persist for years. He explained that the events of El Niño and La Niña usually occur every two to seven years, though they don’t follow a set pattern.
El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon of periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern regions of the Pacific Ocean. La Niña is the opposite, describing cooler-than-average sea temperatures. Both El Niño and La Niña significantly affect Earth’s weather patterns. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño generally occurs more frequently than La Niña.
Due to the ongoing effects of El Niño and other regional variables, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures for the December–February period. Consequently, most parts of India are expected to have a less harsh winter this year.
When sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius over the long-term average, El Niño is declared.
“The above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over the country as a whole in December 2023 to February 2024 are mainly attributed to El Niño, where temperatures tend to be higher. Additionally, regional factors like frequent western disturbances will cause cloudiness and low minimum temperatures,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, during a virtual press conference.
Earth scientist and glaciology expert, Professor Shakeel Ahmad Romshoo, while endorsing the IMD prognosis, said that the Kashmir valley might experience a mild winter and less snowfall than usual this year.
“As the effects of the El Niño year continue, the Kashmir valley may also see milder winters with lower-than-average snowfall. This is an El Niño year, which usually brings less snowfall in the Kashmir Himalayas. It causes the protracted dry spell as has been observed in the valley these days,” Romshoo told Kashmir Observer.
Professor Romshoo, who also holds the charge of Vice-Chancellor of Islamic University of Science and Technology, Awantipora, said that out of the total 78 years till end of the 21st century, approximately 40 years are predicted to be notably drier, particularly during autumns.
“The indicators of climate change are very clear in Jammu and Kashmir and we have observed an increased frequency of droughts in the region during the recent few decades. Particularly, the autumn season is becoming drier in the valley. From recent research, we have found that the Kashmir valley will experience more frequent and prolonged droughts from the mid to end of the 21st century, making it a new norm during 2051-2099 due to the climate change,” Romshoo said.
He hoped that the findings from the extensive study would inform policymaking and strategies for climate action, which is one of the important sustainable development goals aimed at mitigating and adapting to the droughts under changing climate particularly in the fragile mountainous Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya.
Follow this link to join our WhatsApp group: Join Now
Be Part of Quality Journalism |
Quality journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce and despite all the hardships we still do it. Our reporters and editors are working overtime in Kashmir and beyond to cover what you care about, break big stories, and expose injustices that can change lives. Today more people are reading Kashmir Observer than ever, but only a handful are paying while advertising revenues are falling fast. |
| ACT NOW |
| MONTHLY | Rs 100 |  |
| YEARLY | Rs 1000 | |
| LIFETIME | Rs 10000 | |
