In the run up to the 2019 parliamentary election, Congress put up a stiff resistance to the BJP. Towards the end of 2018, the party won Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. As a result, the saffron party didn’t appear to be a favourite to win the general election. Most optimistic prediction was that the BJP would return with a reduced tally, forcing it to stitch together a weak coalition government, a throwback to the one run by Atal Bihari Vajpayee from 2002-2007.
But the Pulwama attack on February 14, 2019 that killed 40 CRPF personnel changed everything. The subsequent military strike on Balakot by the Indian airforce that followed soon after followed by the dog-fight hurtled the BJP back to the centre stage. The party swept to victory in the general election held in May that year.
As India heads into five state elections, one can’t help but feel a deep sense of de javu. Congress once again looks favourite to win in the majority of them except in Rajasthan. Should the results play out as expected, the BJP would once again find itself in a difficult spot, a la December 2018. But many people believe that the party could still pull it off in the national polls. And it could very well do it.
The reasons are not far to seek. Despite almost a decade in power, the party has skillfully evaded significant anti-incumbency backlash. Understanding this phenomenon could serve as a masterclass in electoral politics. True, media has played a major role in burnishing the BJP’s image by zealously protecting it from all criticism, there are other factors at work. On the face of it, Hindutva, the party’s ideology, seems to trump everything. It kills all political competition without even a fight. In fact, there is no alternative political ideology in the country at the moment. The opposition no longer sees secularism as an electorally beneficial proposition and would rather buy into the Hindutva narrative as it resonates with the majority of the people. Congress has been the first to abandon its ideological space. It doesn’t champion secularism, nor does it dare to woo Muslims, once its loyal vote bank. The reason for this is that, under the existing circumstances, the party sees secularism as its bane. In 2018, the UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi said that the BJP was winning the polls as it had managed to convince the people that the Congress is a Muslim party.
Similarly, Arvind Kejriwal, once a proponent of the so called post-ideological politics in the country, has chosen to rebrand himself as a Hindu leader. In 2020, he observed Lakhsmi Puja on Diwali together with his entire Council of Ministers, with his spouse by his side. Kejriwal was also the first to support revocation of Article 370. He didn’t speak against the Citizenship Amendment Act. And as the AAP, Kejriwals’ party, expands its footprint and looks set to step into the position of a national opposition party, his nods to the BJP’s ideological vision have become more conspicuous.
Is there now a tacit consensus on Hindutva in the country? It does appear so. And this makes the BJP even stronger as the party remains the sole authentic purveyor of the ideology. And no matter how much other parties hew closer to the BJP creed, they will always be seen as counterfeit, opportunistic copies of the original.
Another existing political reality of the country that goes to the advantage of the BJP is the extinction of the parties adhering to socialist and communist philosophies. These parties were doggedly secular in their politics and had a national vision. Other than in Kerala, where communists run the government, they are no longer a political force anywhere else in the country. They are not even the distant opposition in West Bengal, a former communist stronghold. So, the BJP has faced little political resistance during its tenure.
The saffron party offers a deft blend of a hardcore ideology and welfare governance. It has Modi as its overarching leader. And considering its electoral machinery, it has become all-encompassing. So, it would seem that the party has nothing to fear.
But the advent of the INDIA Alliance and with it the revival of caste politics is seen as a challenge to the saffron party. The alliance represents a diverse array of regional and national parties, which have historically been rivals but have set aside their differences for a common cause: to address the pressing issues affecting the country and challenge the BJP’s nationalist platform. Other than the Congress, it boasts of some major regional parties and the leaders who command massive public following. Already, the opposition’s wins in Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka have put some wind in the sails of political resistance to the BJP. And it is in this context that the upcoming state polls assume their significance. Losses in a majority of these states, as seems likely, could further affect the BJP’s 2024 chances. But at the same time, not necessarily so. As the record of the past over nine years shows, the reverses at regional level haven’t dented the BJP’s national popularity. 2019 could very well play out again.
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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