By Faizan Arif
The Amarnath Yatra pilgrimage holds immense importance in India and attracts a vast number of devotees each year. Participants embark on a challenging journey to reach the sacred Amarnath Holy Cave, nestled at an elevation of 3,888 meters amidst snow-covered mountains. This year’s pilgrimage commenced on July 1st and is scheduled to conclude on August 31st. The month of July alone witnessed an impressive turnout of around 400,000 pilgrims who embarked on the expedition to catch a glimpse of the revered Ice-Shivalingam.
Amid the global turmoil caused by climate change-related disasters, even the revered Amarnath Yatra pilgrimage has not been spared from its detrimental effects. The escalating occurrence of severe weather incidents presents formidable challenges to this sacred journey. Regrettably, in 2015, the Amarnath Yatra witnessed the loss of three lives due to a sudden cloudburst at the Baltal base camp. Similarly, the previous year saw the tragic consequences of another cloudburst near the Amarnath Holy Cave, leading to the unfortunate demise of at least 15 individuals. While these incidents were deeply saddening, people raised concerns about the performance of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), alleging lapses in weather prediction and timely cautionary measures.
Was the IMD at fault, or is there more to the situation?
Cloudbursts tend to happen when monsoon clouds and moisture-laden winds, occasionally linked to a low-pressure system, travel northward from the Bay of Bengal over the Indo-Gangetic Plains towards the Himalayas, leading to concentrated and heavy precipitation. On occasions, the moisture might also stem from winds originating in the Arabian Sea. These events predominantly occur during the southwest monsoon season in regions with significant orography.
The Amarnath Yatra takes place during the season when the likelihood of cloudbursts is at its peak, which is the southwest monsoon season. Additionally, there are two routes for the trek to the Amarnath Holy Cave: one through Pahalgam and the other through Baltal. Both routes are located above 2500 meters in a mountainous landscape. The final destination of the trek, the Amarnath Holy Cave, sits at an elevation of 3,888 meters. Consequently, the risk of heavy rain, sudden floods, and cloudbursts is an ever-present concern in these areas.
In the late afternoon of July 08 last year, a strong downpour, potentially a cloudburst, occurred in the vicinity of the cave, triggering sudden floods that tragically claimed the lives of 15 individuals. Although the blame was swiftly placed on the IMD for its inability to forecast the cloudburst event, little did the public realize that predicting a cloudburst at a precise location is an impractical task.
Until the previous year, the IMD had only two radars in Jammu and Kashmir – one in Srinagar and another in Jammu. The radar in Srinagar is unable to detect precipitation within Sonamarg and Pahalgam areas due to the mountainous terrain.
When a radar emits electromagnetic waves, they travel directly until they encounter obstacles like mountains. As these waves hit the mountains, they are blocked or weakened, leading to the radar’s inability to detect objects or weather patterns behind these obstructions. This phenomenon creates a “shadow” region where the radar cannot effectively capture echoes or reflections from rainfall or cloudbursts. Consequently, the presence of mountains in the radar’s coverage significantly limits its ability to provide accurate rainfall data for specific areas.
Predicting short and intense showers accurately, especially without the radar’s assistance, proved to be a challenging task for the IMD. Moreover, cloudbursts, as mentioned earlier, remain inherently unpredictable. Given these technological constraints and the available equipment, the IMD faced limitations in effectively addressing these weather conditions.
Developments since last year
During this year, notable enhancements have been achieved in the IMD’s capacities and infrastructure throughout Jammu and Kashmir. The network of weather stations has been improved, with the eight Automatic Weather Stations at Chandanwari, Panchtarni, Pahalgam, Sangam, Sheshnag, Sonamarg, Bararri, and Amarnath Holy Cave now providing updates every 15 minutes instead of the previous hourly updates.
I had a conversation with Mr. Mohammad Ashraf Wani, who serves as the IMD Incharge for AWS in Jammu and Kashmir. He mentioned that the Automatic Weather Stations have undergone an upgrade, transitioning from satellite-based to sim-based technology. As a result of this upgrade, these stations can now offer updates every 15 minutes. This advancement enables us to gauge the rainfall’s intensity and enhances our capability to forecast occurrences of intense showers. In the event of rainfall near an AWS station, this technology can proactively alert both individuals and emergency response teams, contributing to improved preparedness.
In a conversation with Mr. Mukhtar Ahmad, the Deputy Director of the Meteorological Centre in Srinagar, he shared that a new X-Band Doppler Weather Radar has been successfully installed at Banihal Top. This significant addition has greatly improved both forecasting and nowcasting capabilities. Unlike the previous scenario where the sole radar in Kashmir, located in Srinagar, couldn’t cover the area near the Holy Cave, the newly installed radar has bridged this gap. This radar’s implementation now provides more comprehensive insights into rainfall occurring along these routes. Additionally, it will contribute to improved nowcasting for areas such as Banihal, Ramban, and the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway –a route for the Yatra pilgrimage.
As part of this year’s initiatives, the IMD has also set up a weather base camp at Nunwan Pahalgam. This camp is dedicated to offering weather services, including the dissemination of hourly forecasts to the Yatris.
These improvements in technology and forecasting capabilities hold promise for reducing damages and providing better warnings. However, the ongoing challenge posed by the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has not evaded, as highlighted in the IPCC’s 6th assessment report, and observed firsthand in the Kashmir valley. As a result, climate change could continue to threaten the safety of the Amarnath Yatra pilgrims.
The risks posed by climate change demand urgent action to safeguard the lives of devotees undertaking the Amarnath Yatra. It is imperative to address the vulnerabilities that expose pilgrims to perilous conditions. Enhancing forecasting capabilities, deploying advanced technologies, and implementing robust infrastructure such as more radars and automatic weather stations, are crucial steps to mitigate these risks, forecast better, and ensure the long-term viability of the pilgrimage. This would definitely require additional financial support from the government of India, which could contribute to covering the costs related to the necessary infrastructure and workforce. The government’s support for research initiatives focused on understanding complex weather patterns, climate change impacts, and disaster preparedness can lead to improved forecasting methods and mitigation strategies. Also, collaborations between the government and private sector can provide additional resources and expertise, fostering innovation and better service delivery.
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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