By Faizan Arif
Let’s start by providing a definition of a cloudburst: A cloudburst, as defined by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is a weather phenomenon characterised by heavy rainfall over a localised area at an extremely high rate, 100 mm per hour. Accompanied sometimes by strong winds and lightning, these events predominantly occur during the southwest monsoon season in regions with significant orography, such as the Himalayan region, northeastern states, and the Western Ghats.
Cloudbursts usually occur when monsoon clouds and moisture-laden winds, sometimes associated with a low-pressure area, move northwards from the Bay of Bengal across the Indo-Gangetic Plains towards the Himalayas, resulting in heavy and intense downpours. In some cases, the moisture may also come from winds originating in the Arabian Sea. The clouds associated with cloudbursts can extend up to 20 km above the ground, indicating cumulonimbus convection in conditions of significant moist thermodynamic instability and rapid dynamic lifting caused by steep terrain. Cloudburst events in remote and sparsely populated hilly regions may often go unnoticed until the media reports casualties and damages.
Can we obtain an exact figure for the number of cloudbursts that occur?
Counting cloudbursts accurately presents a significant challenge. This weather phenomenon typically occurs over a very small area, making the detection difficult for satellites and radars. When a radar emits a beam of electromagnetic waves, it travels in a straight line until it encounters an obstacle, such as a mountain. As the beam hits the mountain, it gets blocked or attenuated, preventing the radar from detecting objects or weather phenomena located behind the obstruction. This phenomenon leads to a “shadow” area on the other side of the mountain where the radar cannot effectively capture echoes or reflections from rainfall or cloudbursts. Consequently, the presence of mountains in the radar’s range significantly hampers its ability to provide complete and accurate rainfall data for specific regions, especially in mountainous terrains like Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh.
Onslaught of Flash Floods and Cloudbursts
In the last 20 days, Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh have encountered over two dozen potential cloudbursts, inflicting considerable damage to infrastructure, orchards, and crops, and tragically resulting in casualties due to flash floods. During this period, the southwest monsoon remained active, permitting moisture-laden easterly winds to infiltrate Jammu and Kashmir, bringing a substantial amount of moisture to the region. The convergence of a Western Disturbance with monsoon winds led to moderate to extremely heavy rainfall in most parts of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh between July 7 and July 12.
Notably, Pahalgam experienced the all-time highest 24-hour rainfall in July, 73.3 mm, surpassing the previous record set in 1983. Similarly, Qazigund recorded its second all-time-highest 24-hour rainfall (94.0 mm) in July. Banihal witnessed its all-time highest 24-hour rainfall (103.8 mm) in July. Furthermore, Bhaderwah experienced its highest 24-hour rainfall (125.1 mm) in July since 2005, while Kathua ARG recorded an extraordinary amount of rainfall, 296.0 mm, within 24 hours.
As a consequence of heavy rains, the Jhelum River at Sangam, Vishow Nallah at Khudwani, Jhelum River at Pampore, and Jhelum River at Ram Munshi Bagh Srinagar, surpassed their respective flood declaration marks. In the Jammu region, heavy to extremely heavy rainfall led to the River Tawi at Udhampur and Panjthirthi at Billawar Kathua exceeding the danger level. The Chenab River at Akhnoor approached the danger level as well. These occurrences might have been marked by cloudbursts and heavy rainfall in elevated areas, leading to a sudden surge in water levels across major rivers in Jammu and Kashmir.
In the past week, Jammu and Kashmir experienced a surge in flash floods and cloudbursts incidents, which were more localized rather than large-scale events.
On July 16, Drabgam Pulwama and nearby villages were hit by flash floods.
On July 19, Panjthirthi in Kathua faced severe flooding, resulting in the submergence of villages and damage to buildings, leading to the loss of eight lives due to floods and landslides in Kathua district. Katra in Reasi district received an unprecedented 315.4 mm of rainfall within 24 hours (ending on July 19, 8:30 am), breaking all previous records. The same day, a cloudburst struck Reasi, as confirmed by the IMD’s ARG station. In the late afternoon on the same day, flash floods struck Zurhama Kupwara, causing damage to infrastructure, including washing away of a road completely.
On July 21, heavy rainfall in Ganderbal district, particularly in Kangan Tehsil, caused flash floods in Khanan village and mudslides/landslides in the area, with media reports suggesting a cloudburst in the upper regions as the cause. On the night of July 21, a flash flood affected areas near Leh’s main bazaar, leading to water entering houses and causing significant damage to roads and infrastructure. A day before this, Khalsar village in Nubra valley also experienced flash floods.
Early morning of July 22, a cloudburst triggered flash floods in Bangla Nallah in Chirala Tehsil of Doda district, while multiple locations in Kulgam, including Manzgam, DH Pora, Chachamulla, and Korel, were hit by flash floods triggered possibly by cloudbursts in the late afternoon, resulting in damage to houses in residential areas, crops, and orchards.
On July 23, flash floods struck several villages in the upper reaches of Kupwara, including Trumnard Batpora in Haihama, and caused vehicles to be submerged. Additionally, a tragic incident in the Kalaroos area led to the death of a woman who was swept away by the floodwaters.
During the last seven days, there were a dozen more incidents of flash floods and cloudbursts reported in various areas of Jammu and Kashmir, including a cloudburst in the Faqir Gujri area of Srinagar and flash floods in Gundmachar, Khurhama, and Shalagund areas of Kupwara.
How is climate change contributing to the occurrence of flash floods and cloudbursts
The frequent occurrences of flash floods and cloudbursts have raised significant questions among researchers. Some argue that while cloudbursts have always taken place, they are now receiving more attention due to heightened media coverage. However, I hold the belief that the incidence of cloudbursts might have escalated in the past decade in Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh due to the impacts of global warming and climate change. Even though we lack specific data on cloudburst figures, as mentioned earlier, it is essential to consider the warming atmosphere’s effects. The warmer climate has the potential to hold more moisture, leading to increased rainfall over certain regions. Notably, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report supports this view, indicating a global increase in extreme rainfall events and projecting further escalation in the near future, given the warming atmosphere. As a result, the atmosphere’s instability has amplified, creating the likelihood of more cloudbursts and intense showers in the times ahead.
A sneak peek into the forthcoming weather forecast
The current weather forecast indicates rain showers to continue until Saturday, as the monsoon winds persist over both Union Territories. As a result, the likelihood of heavy downpours and cloudbursts cannot be discounted. While there may be a temporary relief from intense rain showers early next week, the monsoon showers are likely to return later in the week. The risk of intense rainfall and cloudbursts will persist until September, when the monsoon season is anticipated to withdraw.
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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