THE geological wisdom achieved over two centuries makes it apparent that earthquake hazards in South Asia are genetic to the structural and tectonic setting of the region, which means the remedies are also possible only if the structural and tectonic framework is understood. The state-of-the-art on earthquake hazards makes it clear that prediction is impossible, but forecasting is available. It is the science of forecasting earthquakes that we know what to expect in a region and how to deal with it.
Before I tell you more about the earthquakes, I would like to remind you that the beautiful valley of the Kashmir region is ornamented with mountains and rivers, which are part of the tectonic journey of India towards Eurasia. It tells us that beauty comes at the cost of the risk of earthquakes and floods. If we genuinely want to enjoy the beauty and majesty of the Himalayan region, we have to put our heart into learning how the area has grown in the womb of tectonic plates interacting and forming the gushing rivers, majestic mountains, valleys, glaciers, and so on. The mountains surrounding and guarding us in the valley on all sides were born by earthquakes, which are still jolting this region to finalize its structural framework. The earthquakes are not our enemies in that sense because quakes have made the place what it is today. Therefore, the Switzerland of Asia title cannot be earned without risks of dealing with the hazards of living in areas where tectonic plates interact, grow, and develop into mature mountains.
The recent earthquake of Magnitude 5.0 occurred some 21 km Northeast of Bhadarwah, according to the information provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The quake originated at a shallow depth of 10 km, which could turn deadly if the earthquake was larger than magnitude five (5.0) and closer to seven (7.0) and above. Our team and other geologists have worked in the region, and we know that magnitude seven and above is possible. The internal fault system near Bhadarwah probably caused the Baderwah trembling that we named the Bhadarwah Fault. Quake has caused some severe damage, which authorities are still examining.
The earthquake hazards in Kashmir and contagious regions are either occurring on the frontal fault system or in the interior areas, posing a severe risk to millions of people living in those risky and tectonically active areas. The Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault is the primary earthquake-causing fault that connects most South Asian regions, such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, India, and Pakistan. The megathrust fault threatens all these countries, which means they all share the burden of the hazards associated with the fault. Ideally, these countries should collaborate to minimize the risks to save lives and assets in future earthquake events. Such a large-scale collaboration is not in place, often because of political issues, which makes people more vulnerable to hazards.
The lessons we should learn from the recent Bhadarwah earthquake are many. It shows that earthquake faults are active, alive, and threatening. They are not dead; they are on their mission to rupture, which could, unfortunately, rupture our dreams if we do not understand the language of hazards and what to expect in the future. Earthquakes cause shaking of the foundations we live on, and we must know how to strengthen that foundation to withstand any incoming earthquake-induced shaking.
We have to face the challenge and reality, which is this: we are not prepared to face even a small earthquake of magnitude 6.5, and we expect that quakes on the active faults that shoulder the entire Kashmir region could be much more dangerous and ferocious because of the extent of unplanned urbanization.
It is critical to understand what recently happened in a medium to a developed country like Turkey, which lost more than 50,000 people during the February 2023 quake. We live in a developing country where things can worsen, requiring the administration of Kashmir and other regions to map the seismic vulnerability of buildings etc. and to inform people of what to expect and how to improve so earthquakes do not become disasters. We must do the vulnerability mapping because we don’t have time to wait.
Reviewing buildings should be prioritized to decide the need for reinforcement and rebuilding, which could involve shifting people to safer locations. The construction of new buildings should be adequately monitored to follow the standard seismic building codes. The entire exercise will take longer if not initiated at the earliest; waiting for more means less time for earthquake hazards to turn into catastrophic events. Therefore, building people’s resilience against risks is urgently needed by strengthening the buildings and foundations to face severe earthquake shaking. We still have time, but we do not know how much, which should worry us more.
Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
- The author is a Sr. Assistant Professor, Structural Geology, Department of Geosciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam
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