False Spring – The Troubled Journey of Crops in J&K’s Weather Vagaries

By Faizan Arif Keng

MARCH arrived in Jammu and Kashmir, bringing warmth and optimism to the farmers who anticipated a bountiful crop this year. However, their hopes were quickly dashed as the weather patterns dramatically shifted, persisting for an extended period, for what felt like forever. Hailstorms, cloudbursts, thundershowers, and gusty winds became the daily norm. It was like the Union Territory took a crash course in becoming the new Mawsynram. Sunny weather became a rarity, with residents struggling to recall the last time they witnessed clear skies.

March came knocking with the arrival of 6 Western Disturbances in Jammu and Kashmir. But here’s the twist: only a couple of them brought the much-needed rain and snowfall, leaving the rest feeling like mere passing clouds.

As April rolled in, the region experienced the arrival of 3 strong Western Disturbances. These weather systems made their presence felt, remaining active for an impressive span of 4 to 7 days each.

But it was May that really stole the show, bringing a whopping 8 Western Disturbances to Jammu and Kashmir. This was the highest number of disturbances witnessed during the Spring season this year. The month witnessed frequent spells of rain and thunderstorm.

From Dry Spell to Deluge

Jammu and Kashmir’s Rainfall Rollercoaster

The initial 45 days of Spring were marked by dry conditions, with fewer impactful Western Disturbances. Typically, March is the month when Kashmir receives the highest amount of rainfall in the year. However, this time around, the precipitation fell short by a significant 48%, resulting in a notable deficiency.

The first half of April also witnessed below-normal rainfall, and the deficiency continued to rise. However, the situation took a dramatic turn when active Western Disturbances began affecting the Union Territory. As a result, April concluded with a 14% surplus in rainfall, surpassing the expected levels.

Moving into May, the region experienced thundershowers consistently throughout the month, thanks to the frequent arrival of active Western Disturbances. This continuous influx resulted in an impressive 24% surplus in rainfall by the end of the period.

When considering the complete picture, Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a 13% deficit, totaling 288.7 mm of rainfall compared to the average of 330.0 mm.

Samba stood out as the best performer during the entire Spring season, experiencing an impressive 44% excess rainfall, while Rajouri and Poonch followed closely with 34% and 21% excess rainfall, respectively.

Kishtwar district faced the most severe rainfall deficit during the Spring season, with a staggering 60% shortfall, followed by Kathua with 39%, Budgam with 29%, Shopian with 28%, and Kupwara with 24% deficit rainfall.

Srinagar had a minor -1% deficit, while Jammu experienced a slightly larger -3% shortfall. Anantnag had a small 2% surplus, whereas Bandipora and Kulgam faced deficits of -6%. Baramulla and Pulwama observed a positive deviation with 3% excess rainfall, whereas Ganderbal had a notable -12% deficit. Doda, Reasi, Ramban, and Udhampur displayed varying degrees of surplus rainfall, with percentages of 18%, 6%, 2%, and 1% respectively.

Spring’s Sunlight Squeeze

Chilling Temperatures and Crop Setbacks in Jammu and Kashmir

During the final 45 days of Spring, Jammu and Kashmir experienced the impact of 10 Western Disturbances. Throughout this period, there were over 35 days characterized by partly cloudy to completely cloudy conditions, which caused the day temperatures to stay below normal.

There were occasions when temperatures plummeted as much as 16°C below the normal range. On the final day of Spring, May 31^st, Srinagar registered a maximum temperature of only 15.3°C, marking a significant deviation of 11 degrees Celsius below the average. Similarly, Jammu City recorded a temperature of 23.5°C on the same day, which was 15.9°C below normal.

These temperature readings were comparable to the weather typically seen in February, highlighting the unseasonable and cold conditions experienced during this period.

Furthermore, the last 45 days of the spring season were accompanied by hailstorms, gusty winds, intense showers, and cloudbursts. Some areas were hit by more than three hailstorm events, causing extensive damage to the horticulture and agriculture sectors. Crops and fruits were severely affected, while the paddy sowing activities faced significant setbacks due to these weather events.

After an early bloom in the first half of the season, the abrupt return of winter-like conditions had a detrimental impact on the vegetation. Furthermore, the reduction in sunlight hours during this period likely exacerbated the negative effects, adding to the challenges faced by the farmers and contributing to the overall loss experienced.

Reduction in sunlight hours can have several negative impacts on crops and fruits. Here are some of the main effects:

1. Reduced photosynthesis: Sunlight is essential for photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert light energy into chemical energy to fuel their growth and development. A reduction in sunlight hours limits the amount of energy plants can produce, leading to slower growth rates and reduced yields. This can directly impact crop productivity and the quality of fruits.

2. Stunted growth: Insufficient sunlight can lead to stunted growth in plants. Sunlight provides the energy needed for various physiological processes, including cell division and expansion. Without an adequate amount of sunlight, plants may experience slower growth and smaller overall size. This can result in reduced crop yields and smaller-sized fruits.

3. Delayed maturity: Sunlight plays a crucial role in regulating the flowering and fruiting processes in many crops. A reduction in sunlight hours can delay the onset of flowering and the maturation of fruits. As a result, the harvest may be delayed, affecting the timing of market availability and potentially reducing the overall yield.

4. Poor fruit quality: Sunlight influences the development of color, taste, and nutritional content in fruits. Fruits that receive an insufficient amount of sunlight may exhibit poor coloration, reduced sugar content, and altered flavor profiles. For example, tomatoes may have a less vibrant red color and taste less sweet. This can negatively impact consumer acceptance and market value.

5. Increased susceptibility to diseases and pests: Sunlight plays a role in plant defense mechanisms by promoting the production of certain chemicals that can help plants resist diseases and pests. Reduced sunlight weakens the plant’s immune system, making it more susceptible to infections and infestations. Crop yield and fruit quality can be further compromised by the increased incidence of diseases and pests.

6. Altered plant metabolism: Sunlight influences various metabolic processes in plants, including the synthesis of important compounds such as starches, sugars, and phytochemicals. A reduction in sunlight can disrupt these metabolic pathways, affecting the nutritional composition and overall quality of crops and fruits. This can impact their taste, texture, and nutritional value.

Spring’s Growing Challenge

Examining the Effects of Weather on Crop Performance from Scientific Studies

As per ‘Climate changes and potential impacts on postharvest quality of fruit and vegetable crops: A review’, by C.L. Moretti, L.M. Mattos, A.G. Calbo, S.A. Sargent, published in August 2010 in the ‘Food Research International’ journal, “A general temperature effect in plants involves the ratio between photosynthesis and respiration. For a high yield, not only photosynthesis should be high but also the ratio photosynthesis/respiration should be much higher than one.”

“Photosynthetic activity is proportional to temperature variations. High temperatures can increase the rate of biochemical reactions catalyzed by different enzymes.”

“The higher the temperature during the growing season, the sooner the crop will mature. Hall, McPherson, Crawford, and Seager (1996) and Wurr, Fellows, and Phelps (1996) reported that lettuce, celery, cauliflower, and kiwi grown under higher temperatures matured earlier than the same crops grown under lower temperatures.”

According to a study conducted by Kliewer and Lider in 1968, prolonged exposure to sunlight resulting in high temperatures on the surface of fruits can accelerate the ripening process and related events. This phenomenon was observed in grapes, where berries exposed to direct sunlight ripened at a faster rate compared to those that ripened in shaded areas within the canopy.

The research paper titled ‘Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA’ by Erica Kistner, Olivia Kellner, Jeffrey Andresen, Dennis Todey, and Lois Wright Morton, published on 22 September 2017 in the journal ‘Climatic Change,’ provides real examples illustrating the detrimental effects of abnormal weather conditions in spring on crops and fruits.

“Extreme temperature fluctuations during the spring can have enormous impacts on specialty crops. Cold temperatures infiltrated the Midwest specialty crop growing region during the springs of 2007 and 2012, severely damaging crops each year. Each event was preceded by an extended period of warmer-than-normal temperatures that caused perennial crops to break dormancy and begin growing earlier than normal. Identified as a “false spring” (Marino et al. 2011), the week prior to April 5–7, 2007, saw daily minimum temperatures in excess of 15 °C in central Missouri. This was followed by a shift in the jet stream that moved arctic air into the Central and Eastern USA for about a week. During the event, temperatures plummeted to as cold as −7 °C resulting in agricultural losses of about $2 billion (Marino et al. 2011).”

“If crop water demand exceeds the available water supply, crop damage can result. This is most important during pollination and fruit-set time for most vegetable crops (Chatterjee and Solankey 2015).”

“Excess moisture was the costliest to specialty crops in the Midwest states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Missouri from 1989 to 2015, according to USDA-RMA. It ranks second most costly in the states of Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio. It is Minnesota’s most commonly claimed specialty crop hazard. Overall, Midwestern producers have claimed over $130 million in losses due to excess moisture, precipitation, or rain alone. The three worst years were 1999, 1993, and 2001, respectively (adjusted to 2015 dollars). Two federal disaster declarations were made that year for Minnesota due to severe ice storms, flooding, and heavy rain (FEMA 2016). During the 9 years prior to 2013, southern Minnesota experienced three 1000-year flood events (Durgan 2013). In 2015, central Illinois (which produces 90% of the country’s canned pumpkin) received 58.9 cm of rain from May to July (nearly double the average). The excess moisture greatly reduced the pumpkin harvest, leading to a shortage of canned pumpkins in 2015 (Angel 2015).”

The Bitter Harvest

Devastating Toll on Jammu and Kashmir’s Crops and Growers Amidst Unpredictable Weather

Apples

According to apple growers, similar to previous years, there was a noticeable increase in temperatures during March, resulting in the early sprouting of apple trees. However, the situation took a turn in April when the temperature suddenly plummeted due to incessant rainfall. This abrupt drop in temperature had an adverse effect on the blossoming stage of apple trees.

As per Sajad Ahmad Nanwai, an apple grower from Marhma village in south Kashmir’s Anantnag district, the disruption of the planned spraying schedule for apple orchards due to unseasonal rains results in increased susceptibility of the crop to diseases like scab and other ailments at an early stage of development. The occurrence of rains and hailstorms is likely to have a negative impact on the crop, which becomes more evident during the harvest season.

In a conversation with The Quint, Dr. Tariq Rasool, an associate professor in the division of plant pathology at Sher-i-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST), highlighted the impact of incessant rains on apple orchards. He explained that frequent wet spells during the blossoming stage can trigger infections and scabs in apple orchards. The increased rainfall not only enhances the occurrence of scabs but also adversely affects the growth and size of the apple crop.

Dr. Tariq Rasool added that the erratic weather patterns severely disrupt the scheduled pesticide spraying in apple orchards. The continuous rainfall not only hampers the timely application of vital pesticides but also washes away the fungicide spray intended for apple trees. He highlighted that apple growers in Kashmir allocate a significant amount, approximately Rs. 700-800 crores, for pesticide sprays annually. However, frequent rains pose challenges, preventing them from carrying out timely sprays in their orchards, thereby impacting the efficacy of pest control efforts.

GR Mir, the Director of Horticulture in Kashmir, highlighted the adverse effects of increased precipitation during the bloom stage on cross-pollination in the apple fruit crop. He expressed concern over the potential decrease in production during the upcoming harvesting season due to consistent wet spells and low temperatures experienced over the past three months. Mir explained that bees do not engage in pollination during rainy periods, leading to a decline in fruit production. He further noted that the combination of low temperatures and rainfall, starting from mid-March and persisting intermittently until mid-May, has negatively impacted the “fruit set” phase of apples. This critical stage represents the transition from flower pollination to fruit development in plants.

Paddy

The continuous rainfall and low temperatures in Kashmir have had a negative impact on the growth of paddy nurseries, leading to a delay in their development. Consequently, farmers were forced to re-sow paddy crops. The farmers expressed uncertainty about the success of the initially sown paddy in nurseries, considering the adverse effects of persistent rains, hailstorms, and low temperatures. They also noted the damage caused to paddy seedlings due to erratic weather conditions, resulting in weakened growth. This resulted in financial losses for farmers during the sowing season, and there were growing concerns about the potential failure of the crop due to the ongoing unfavorable weather conditions.

Cherry

According to cherry grower Shakir Ahmad, a resident of Pargochi Shopian, the frequent rains have caused significant damage to the cherry crop. Approximately 40% of the cherries have been damaged on the trees themselves, with some being affected even before they had a chance to ripen. Additionally, after the rains, the exposed cherries have been susceptible to breakage when exposed to sunlight.

The impact of the rains has varied across different cherry varieties, with some suffering more than others. The cherry season has been notably delayed this year, unlike the previous year when there was a good production in May. Normally, cherries take about 15 days to ripen, but the rain spells have hindered their proper coloring and delayed the ripening process.

Fortunately, certain cherry varieties are more resilient to the effects of rain and are primarily used for juice production, minimizing the overall impact. However, the continuous rain spells have become a significant challenge for cherry production.

Diseases

According to Nazir Ahmad, a farmer, they are facing challenges with insects and scabs affecting their crops. Despite using insecticides, they have not seen any noticeable effect. Moreover, the cost of these insecticides is quite high. Additionally, the farmers are experiencing allergies after spraying the insecticides, making it difficult for them to visit their horticultural land.

Bilal Ahmad, a farmer, expressed his frustration, stating, “Despite spraying insecticides, we have seen no improvement in controlling diseases affecting our crops. Even the insecticides recommended by the government have proven ineffective this time. It seems like we are dealing with a new type of disease.”

As per Zamindar, a news portal covering agriculture, horticulture, environment, and wildlife, Leaf Miner blotch is giving sleepless nights to the thousands of orchardists in south Kashmir’s district Shopian and Pulwama districts. This insect is making tunnels in the leaves and sucking all the nutrients from the trees. The horticulture department has miserably failed to contain this pest despite recommending Imidacloprid, Thiamethoxam, Lambda Cyhalothrin, Chloropyriphos, Cypermethrin, and Quinalphos which are highly lethal insecticides.

The farmers are anxiously awaiting the outcome of this year’s yield, as they find themselves in a state of distress. Current forecasts indicate a potential increase in the number of sunlight hours, which brings some hope. However, the next 10 days are expected to be accompanied by intermittent episodes of thunder showers. This unpredictable weather pattern poses a significant challenge for the farmers, as they strive to navigate through the growing season and maximize their crop productivity. The uncertain combination of increased sunlight and sporadic rainfall adds to the complexity of their agricultural endeavors, heightening the need for adaptive strategies and resilience in the face of these ever-changing conditions.

Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer 

• The author is an independent Weather Forecaster, better known as ‘Kashmir Weather’ across social media

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