By Nirmal Abraham
2022 has been an awfully eventful year for Britain. It witnessed the death of its longest serving monarch, the departure of its shortest serving prime minister, the election of its first non-white premier and the onset of the worst economic crisis it faced in over four decades.
Clearly, an ‘Annus Horribilis’ on all fronts – politically, economically and even culturally.
After Boris Johnson and Liz Truss faced the music of the post-COVID aftershock, Rishi Sunak took over, promising to turn things around for the better.
However, what lies ahead for him are two herculean tasks – stabilize a broken economy and unite the most factionalized political party in the UK. But can a rich, Oxford-educated, traditionalist handle such an ultra-sophisticated political task is the question that concerns many.
There is no doubting Sunak’s credentials as a minister. He has a great resume, a robust background in finance and a great understanding of the British Economy. One would even assume he is the perfect person for the job, given the economic turbulence UK is under right now. But when you are the third prime minister to take charge in seven weeks, it is only natural that your confidence takes a bit of a nosedive.
Sunak’s judgement and leadership had already fallen under the scanner when he appointed Sir Gavin Williamson as a Cabinet Office Minister in October.
Williamson has the dubious history of being expelled twice from the cabinet – once in 2019 following reports that he had leaked sensitive information and then in 2021, due to inappropriate handling of exams during COVID-19.
His selection for a third time raised eyebrows among many, but quite predictably, Williamson fell into another controversy in a week’s time and had to abruptly resign in November; exposing Sunak’s weak judgement and decision-making skills.
But an error in judgement isn’t the only sticky situation he is facing right now.
Inflation:
With the world still enduring the after-effects of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, several nations are experiencing an inflationary drift. Sadly, Britain has been one of the hardest hit, with rates exceeding 11% this October. Food prices across the UK have spiked, energy bills and gas prices have skyrocketed but wages have remained the same, putting many under a terrible cost of living crisis.
If IMF projections are any indication, UK is expected to only grow a meager 0.3% this year. Sunak’s longevity in office largely depends on how he tames inflation and injects growth into a slow growing economy.
Strikes, Protests and Social Unrest:
When the living cost goes up drastically, it is only natural that people would demand higher wages. Everyone from Nurses, Teachers, Postal Workers, Railway Staff, Barristers, Civil Servants and Local Government Staff either have or are planning to go on strike for better pay, pensions and working conditions. And the consequences are starting to show.
While the rail strikes in December alone have cost the economy a loss of nearly 1.5 billion pounds, the transport strikes resulted in a flurry of cancellations of planned Christmas functions, the cost of which is pretty hefty as well.
In fact, over 1.1 million working days were lost between June and October this year, the highest ever for a 5-month period since 1990.
Energy Crisis:
The rapid surge in gas and electricity prices is not only strangulating households, but threatening business productivity and putting government policy to test. With the arrival of winter and a subsequent increase in energy requirements, the crisis is only expected to get worse.
While it is fair to argue that pulling out of trade deals with Russia was a strategic choice, managing the consequences is where Britain failed miserably. The result? Domestic gas and electricity prices shot up by 130% and 66% respectively, resulting in businesses and households grasping at straws in desperation.
With the ‘bomb cyclone’ wreaking havoc in the US, gas supply from the States may also be interrupted, resulting in a crisis so bad that Households will have to choose between either cooking a meal or heating the house to survive the winter.
Immigration:
Britain, like most European nations, has bore the brunt of providing asylum to illegal immigrants – a scenario that it can no longer lavishly afford. But in the age of compassion and inclusivity, it is interesting to see how Sunak will tactfully deal with this issue.
He recently introduced a 5-step plan for curbing illegal immigration and bringing a cap on the number of refugees allowed, along with announcing a new agreement with Albania – a relatively safer nation, whose asylum claims were all rejected last year by every other European superpower except the UK.
The new law will mean that if you reach Britain illegally, you will first be detained and then returned to a home country or a safe country where your claim could be considered. Once removed in such a way, you will have no right to re-entry, settlement or citizenship in the UK.
Assistance to Ukraine:
Even amidst the crisis in 2022, Britain provided military assistance amounting to 2.6 billion USD to Ukraine, making them the second largest donor after the United States. Judging from Sunak’s campaign speeches, the monumental funding process is likely to continue in 2023 as well.
But given the current economic emergency, Sunak would either have to discontinue generously spending on Ukraine or give a serious justification to his people, as to why he is expending such a large chunk of money on helping Ukraine, when his own nation is in dire straits.
Managing the Intra-Party Dissent:
With the election approaching in less than two years, the conservative party cannot afford to be separated in interest or divided in purpose. It has already lost a fair amount of voters owing to maladministration and controversies during COVID-19. Oddly enough, there are now members within the party who believe that a defeat in 2024 is inevitable and are virtually just ‘doing their time’.
As high as 15 MP’s have already confirmed they will not be standing in the next election, and many others are poised to do the same.
Even during the New Year speech, Sunak’s tone sounded a tad pessimistic – nearly hinting that the UK may not recover in 2023. Knowing how diplomatic UK leaders generally are in public addresses, there is every chance he is lowballing.
In contrast, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer struck more of a sanguine tone, vowing to set out the “case for change” for a brand new Britain.
Unsurprisingly, the recent polls indicated that the Labour Party is way ahead in popularity – with a whopping lead of 26 points – signifying that if an election were to happen today, the Labour Party would make a clean sweep.
The GB News poll also found that the public has little confidence that Rishi Sunak’s cabinet will ease the cost of living burden in 2023.
Even the popularity poll for ‘minister of the year’ had Sunak at the fifth place, trailing behind Former PM Boris Johnson, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and two other cabinet ministers, indicating just how unpopular he is, even among party fanatics.
That being said, it is too early to write off Mr. Sunak. A few bold decisions may help him turn the boat around, and if he does, he will not only save the British Economy, but help the Tory Party pull off an unlikely win in 2024.
Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
- Nirmal Abraham is a Management Professor, Columnist and International Affairs Analyst who has published Op-Eds for leading National Newspapers and Digital Media Outlets in India and Abroad
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